When 9% isn't enough: when staying in stocks is worth it

From what return is it worth staying in stocks

A 9% return in eight months sounds good, but if a high-yield savings account pays 2.5% without lifting a finger, are you making money or just fooling yourself? The question, put bluntly, hides a trap: there is no magic number. The threshold depends on inflation, opportunity cost, your time horizon and whether those gains are paper profits or cold, hard cash.

The 9% that isn't 9%

First, the obvious: a 9% gain in eight months is not a 9% annualized return. And if you haven't sold, you haven't made anything: the portfolio has appreciated, but the profit doesn't materialize until you sell. Add to that the distinction between capital gains and dividends, and between gross and net. Some people brag about a +68% for the year using x2 and x3 leverage, only to later admit they are "terrified" and cashing out. That isn't investing, it's betting with borrowed money, and the same person who gains 10% in a day can lose 9% the next.

The real floor: inflation and the savings account

The strongest argument points out that if the portfolio doesn't beat the country's inflation, you lose purchasing power, no matter how green the numbers on your statement look. With a savings account paying 2.5%, the bar for stocks isn't beating that 2.5%, but beating the real depreciation of money: between 8% and 10% a year in high-inflation scenarios. Everything else is noise. And watch out for bonds: in 2022, those who took refuge in fixed income also lost to inflation.

Geopolitics rules: Qatar, Hormuz and the gas companies

Context explains almost everything. Iran's attack on Qatar's gas facilities, with an estimated recovery time of 4 to 5 years, sent prices soaring and strongly boosted oil and gas companies. Equinor is up around +50%, Venture Global +30%, Shell and TotalEnergies +15%. The "two steps ahead" strategy looks for companies that will benefit from the next news item and the one after that, as was the case with Fortum (+111%) when Russia threatened Finland's nuclear plants. That is analysis, not fixed percentages.

It's not all about the number: P/E ratio, value and education

A +10% gain on a speculative stock is not the same as +10% on a company with a 7% dividend and a margin of safety. It depends on the market moment and the valuation. Moreover, the stock market offers very different options: some investments are complex and require training, others don't. If you don't have enough knowledge to analyze an investment, the rational thing is not to move the money, even if a savings account pays little. The long term can favor stocks, but only if you choose your assets well.

In the end, the right question isn't "from what % do I stop being useless?" but "do I understand the risk and the horizon of what I'm buying?". A 9% can be peanuts in an environment with 8% inflation, or a fortune if your money is sitting idle at 0%. No serious person will give you an exact number, and anyone who does is usually selling you something. What is your threshold? The one you calculate yourself, with data, not with gut feelings.