What Sánchez will do if he loses: from opposition to immunity

What Pedro Sánchez will do if he loses the election: opposition, immunity or flight

As the thread on the Economics forum about Pedro Sánchez's future if he loses the next election hits 99 replies, the conversation has turned into an exercise in political and judicial speculation. The consensus is almost unanimous: he will not resign. The question is whether he can stay on as leader of the opposition or whether his immunity as a sitting MP will become his worst enemy. Some argue the prime minister will cling to office tooth and nail, while others predict an abrupt end in pre-trial detention. Most agree his future does not involve a quiet retirement.

The opposition as a trench

The most repeated hypothesis is that Sánchez will try to remain leader of the opposition. "He'll stay on to lead the opposition, he'll promote coup-like uprisings in the streets, he'll go to jail for corruption, get out and get voted back in like Lula," one participant sums up. The comparison with the former Brazilian president is no accident: the idea that an indicted leader can redeem himself at the ballot box hangs over the whole debate. Others believe his own party will ditch him before the local and regional elections, because a sinking leader drags down every mid-level official with him. "The PSOE cannot go into an election with a leader who has sunk the party," another message notes.

Immunity, a double-edged sword

His parliamentary immunity (aforamiento, the legal shield enjoyed by sitting members of parliament) is the legal issue that generates the most ink. If he loses, Congress will have to decide whether to lift it so the Supreme Court can put him on trial. "With immunity, the case goes straight to the Supreme Court, and that's a very fast track for them to nail him," one participant warns. The comparison with the Pujol case is inevitable: without immunity, appeals can drag the process out for decades; with it, the route is shorter and the Supreme Court has "its teeth peine." Several messages point out that the Supreme Court has already shown it wants to go after the Attorney General, which anticipates a complicated judicial scenario for the prime minister.

Flight as the extreme scenario

Although most rule out a move abroad, some messages speculate about a Spanish-style "Bettino Craxi": a discreet exit amid the political chaos. "He'll do a runner taking advantage of the mess the left is going to create, he'll throw up a smoke bomb," one message suggests. Others believe he has contacts in the United States, where he already sought funding after leaving the PSOE, and that he could end up at some international organisation. However, the dominant view is that no relevant international post awaits him: "He's politically toxic, there are no more jobs for him at NATO or the UN."

Electoral fraud and the streets

The possibility of electoral fraud looms in several messages, though with scepticism. "You rig elections when people aren't paying attention, like in 2023. This time there are so many eyes on him that it won't work," one participant argues. The idea that Sánchez could mobilise his voters to make the country ungovernable also comes up: "Get ready to reconquer power. He may see it as possible to coordinate a violent reaction from the people that makes the country ungovernable." Most agree his future lies in politics, but they do not rule out the street being his main tool of pressure.

The Feijóo factor and a repeat election

The resilience of the PP leader is another factor under analysis. "Feijóo will drag his feet, but if he manages to win he won't let go of power for anything," one message notes. The idea that a PP victory does not guarantee stability is also present: "He's counting on a Feijóo gone soft not being able to withstand the pressure and being forced to call elections mid-term." A repeat election, therefore, is not ruled out as a scenario Sánchez could exploit to come back.

The ending nobody rules out

The most pessimistic predictions speak of pre-trial detention within months if the Supreme Court receives the case. "If the PP grants the request to send him to the Supreme Court so they can put the Dog on trial, he'll be in pre-trial detention within months," one message states. Others believe the Spanish judiciary has never convicted a prime minister and that Sánchez will be no exception: "In Spain they've never gone after a prime minister, a former prime minister, or the king." The uncertainty about the prime minister's judicial future is total.

What nobody disputes is that Sánchez will not go quietly. His future, whether in the opposition, in the courts or abroad, will be shaped by the judicial proceedings already open against him and by his party's ability to hold up without him. The only certainty is that the debate about his future has only just begun.