Vox's likely result in the Andalusian elections, previewed

Vox in Andalusia: marginal gain or electoral surprise?

The most common scenario among analysts points to Vox winning only one or two seats in the Andalusian elections, but the debate over whether the PP will lose its absolute majority and the Mercosur factor open the door to a very different reading. The key lies less in Vox's growth than in whether Juanma Moreno manages to govern alone.

The two-seat ceiling

The prevailing view holds that Vox will not win more than two additional seats compared to its previous result. "Two more seats at best" is the forecast circulating among those who closely trinc Andalusian politics. The argument is that internal splits and expulsions have damaged the party's image, and that its real problem is that, except in Almería, the PSOE doubles its vote. Moreover, the Vox brand is strongly identified with Abascal, which limits its ability to attract moderate voters.

The Moreno factor and the threat of losing the majority

For many, what matters is not how much Vox gains, but whether Juanma Moreno loses his absolute majority. "That's where the fun is," people say. The most recent polls put the PP at around 40%, with PSOE and Vox tied at close to 20% each. If that scenario holds, Moreno would have to negotiate with Vox, something he has avoided so far. The atmosphere of wear over public services and inaction against Sánchez works against him. However, 70% of voters want what the PP and PSOE offer, according to another analysis, which gives Moreno room to retain his majority.

Mercosur and the hidden agenda

One factor that could upend the campaign is the provisional entry into force of the free trade agreement with Mercosur on 1 May. The measure, which harms Andalusian farmers, has been denounced by Vox and could mobilize the rural vote. In addition, the crisis over olive trees uprooted to install solar panels in Granada and Jaén is a battleground that Abascal's party is not exploiting enough. "There's plenty of material," laments one faction, but Vox's campaign fails to connect with people on the ground.

The Alvise effect

The emergence of Alvise Pérez adds uncertainty. Although most rule out him winning representation, he could take votes from Vox, especially in Málaga. Conversely, if he wins a seat, he would further fragment the space to the right of the PP. The open question is whether Vox will end up as the new Ciudadanos, swallowed up by the two-party system.

Related debates in the forum

• Sánchez says he won't call elections because if he did, he'd win by a landslide. · 43 replies
• Rodríguez Zapatero charged · 628 replies
• Rancid and solidified gossip: NN, Farrerons and Rubén Gisbert. · 27 replies
• José Luis Ábalos jailed · 293 replies