Vox leads direct voting intention in the Canary Islands, overtaking PSOE and PP

A GESOP poll for Prensa Ibérica puts Vox at the top of direct voting intention in the Canary Islands with 21.1%, ahead of PSOE (20.7%) and PP (14.5%) ahead of the general election on 29 November. The lead over the Socialists is four tenths of a point, a margin that does not allow the leadership to be taken for granted.

The pre-election poll that **GESOP** conducted for **Prensa Ibérica** paints an uncomfortable scenario in the Canary Islands. Vox leads direct voting intention with **21.1%**, ahead of PSOE, which stands at **20.7%**, and well above the Partido Popular, which registers **14.5%**. These figures refer to the general election on **29 November**, not to the regional elections.

The gap between Vox and PSOE is four tenths of a point. That means first place is up for grabs: any later adjustment, any last-minute shift, could turn the picture around. The poll records respondents' stated answers about which party they would vote for, before the adjustments that turn those preferences into a results estimate.

## The PP trails Vox by six and a half points

For the Partido Popular, the poll's reading is especially uncomfortable. Vox leads it by **6.6 points** in the Canary Islands, a gap that leaves it out of the fight for first place in the Islands. **Alberto Núñez Feijóo's** party would have to compete simultaneously with the Socialists and recover ground against a party that outpolls it within its own electoral space.

It is not an isolated case. The Canary Islands rank among the territories where Vox posts its best figures. Its **21.1%** in the Islands exceeds by **6.2 points** the **14.9%** direct voting intention it reaches across Spain as a whole. It also overtakes the PP in Andalusia, where it registers **18.2%** against the conservatives' **16.9%**. In Madrid the gap narrows: **22.5%** for the PP and **21.6%** for Vox.

## Young voters and the generational profile

The generational component helps explain the national profile of this support, although the data refer to Spain as a whole and not to a specific breakdown of young Canarians. Among respondents aged **30 to 44**, Vox leads preferences with **19.6%**, ahead of PSOE's **18.6%** and the PP's **13.7%**. Among those under 30 it gets **20.1%**, while the conservatives stand at **8.2%**.

For PSOE, the picture in the Islands also poses difficulties. Its **20.7%** keeps it practically tied with Vox, but does not give it a comfortable position. The competition reflected in this poll would force the Socialists to defend their support against an adversary that appears above the PP in the responses collected in the Canary Islands.

## One thousand interviews and a margin of error that calls for caution

The study was carried out through **1,000 interviews** by telephone and online in Spain between **6 and 8 October**, with an overall margin of error of **±3.1 points**. That margin corresponds to the national sample and cannot be applied to the smaller Canary Islands subset. That is why the four tenths between Vox and PSOE must be read with particular caution.

The poll opens a significant political contest, although these data do not offer a seat distribution for the two Canary provinces. The question it leaves on the table is Vox's ability to turn that stated support into effective votes, and the response of a PP that, in this measurement, sees **Santiago Abascal** move ahead in the Canary Islands.