VOX edges up in Andalusia: 13.47% to 13.82%

VOX gains just 0.35% in four years: ceiling or floor?

Santiago Abascal's party went from 13.47% of the vote in the 2022 Andalusian elections to 13.82% in 2026. An increase of barely 0.35 percentage points after four years in the legislature. The figure is striking not only because of how small the gain is, but because the party has maintained an aggressive message and counted on a loyal base of voters, yet has failed to expand. On the contrary, turnout rose by around 90,000 votes, suggesting that VOX has barely attracted new voters.

The stagnation in numbers

In 2022, VOX took 13.47% of the ballots. Four years later, with more ballots cast, the percentage has grown by only 0.35 points. In absolute terms, the party has picked up some votes, but its relative weight remains flat. Meanwhile, the PSOE, despite losing percentage points, increased its absolute votes from 883,707 to 947,713, and the PP consolidates itself as the leading force. The rise in turnout has not benefited VOX as much as the traditional parties.

The SALF factor: competition or excuse?

Much of the debate revolves around the impact of Se Acabó La Fiesta (SALF), the party of Alvise Pérez. Some analyses argue that without this breakaway, VOX would have won 4 to 5 more seats. Others, however, contend that SALF voters would not have voted for VOX in its absence, but rather for fringe options or abstention. The truth is that SALF has siphoned off a segment of the protest vote, but VOX's leadership has failed to neutralize it.

Abascal's unfinished business

Internal critics point out that Abascal has prioritized purging dissenters (Ortega Smith, Macarena Olona) and his unconditional alignment with Israel, which alienates part of the traditional electorate. The strategy of focusing almost exclusively on immigration has worked as an anchor, but not as an engine of growth. In Spain's autonomous regions with no say in the matter, the message loses steam. The question is whether VOX has hit its ceiling or whether, with these mistakes corrected, it can aspire to overtake the PP.

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The final paradox: the party that promised to "make Spain great again" has spent four years stuck at 13%. While the blocs are being reconfigured, VOX is left in no man's land.

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