Voting PSOE so corruption leaves office with the government still standing
The case for the useful vote for Spain's PSOE, so corruption cases surface while the government stays in power, is gaining ground ahead of the 29N election. The calculation and its risks.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Voting PSOE so corruption leaves office with the government still standing
There is a thesis circulating with more force than it seems: the only way for the alleged scandals surrounding the government to come to light is for that same government to stay in power. It is not a joke. It is the central argument of a current of thought holding that, with the PP and Vox in office, the judiciary would stop working as a check and everything would be covered up. The date being floated for Spain's general election is November 29, and the debate is no longer about electoral programmes, but about who has more to lose by losing.
The useful-vote calculation: let them govern so they fall
The logic is twisted, and that is why it catches on. If the PSOE stays in government, the ongoing judicial proceedings run their course: the judges investigating cases linked to the prime minister's circle can keep pulling the thread. If the PP and Vox reach La Moncloa, the dominant thesis in this camp is that the Supreme Court would ask Congress for the suplicatorio (the parliamentary authorisation needed to investigate a sitting officeholder) to probe the prime minister, and that the PP would grant it. In other words: the only realistic path to a former prime minister sitting in the dock runs through his losing power first. Paradoxically, voting PSOE would be the way to estimulante ilegal up his downfall.
Some put it bluntly: let him stay put, let him remain in office, let all the information come out while he is still in the post. The motion is not one of support, but of controlled wear-and-tear. And the electoral calculation being made is that, if the PSOE wins with its partners, it will not survive to the autumn of 2028, and then it truly will not get past 50 seats for the next two decades.
The judiciary as the last check
Here lies the crux of the matter. The investigation of cases linked to the prime minister's circle depends on specific courts and magistrates who, so far, have been the only real brake. The concern running through this analysis is that a right-wing victory would allow the top of the judiciary to be reshaped and the proceedings buried. It is not a far-fetched hypothesis: appointments to the highest bodies are a political matter, and any government with a sufficient majority can attempt it.
The counterargument is just as solid: if the PSOE stays in power, it can attempt it too. The difference, according to this current, is that with the PSOE in government the judges already investigating receive no order to stop, because the executive does not directly control the investigators. With the PP, the mechanism would be faster and cleaner.
The price of the gamble: what if it goes wrong
The risk is obvious. Voting for a party so it wears itself out in power is playing with fire. If the PSOE holds on, the term becomes a powder keg of hearings, leaks and cross-cutting proceedings. If it falls, the opposite scenario opens up: the cases are shelved, the investigations slow down and the sense of impunity becomes entrenched.
The other leg of the argument is the street. Some hold that social mobilisation is essential to keep the pressure from fading, and that without it the parliamentary wear-and-tear amounts to nothing. The November 29 date acts as a catalyst: whatever does not happen before will happen after.
The Ayuso factor and the PP's calculation
In the middle of the labyrinth, a disorienting hypothesis appears: if the PP put forward Isabel Díaz Ayuso as its candidate for La Moncloa, the PSOE would have it easier. The Madrid regional premier provokes rejection among broad swathes of the electorate outside Madrid, and her figure mobilises both her own voters and the opposition's. From this angle, the PP would be making a strategic mistake by burning its most mobilising card in Spain as a whole.
The analysis is not unanimous. Some consider Ayuso precisely the only one capable of exciting an electorate disenchanted with Feijóo's leadership, and that her pull in Madrid is transferable. The debate remains open.
The exact point where the analysis gets stuck is this: there is no way to know whether controlled wear-and-tear works or, on the contrary, consolidates the government in power. The gamble is risky, and those who defend it know it. The only certainty is that November 29 is approaching and that, whoever wins, the judicial proceedings will run their course. Or not.
There is a thesis circulating with more force than it seems: the only way for the alleged scandals surrounding the government to come to light is for that same government to stay in power. It is not a joke. It is the central argument of a current of thought holding that, with the PP and Vox in office, the judiciary would stop working as a check and everything would be covered up. The date being floated for Spain's general election is November 29, and the debate is no longer about electoral programmes, but about who has more to lose by losing.
The useful-vote calculation: let them govern so they fall
The logic is twisted, and that is why it catches on. If the PSOE stays in government, the ongoing judicial proceedings run their course: the judges investigating cases linked to the prime minister's circle can keep pulling the thread. If the PP and Vox reach La Moncloa, the dominant thesis in this camp is that the Supreme Court would ask Congress for the suplicatorio (the parliamentary authorisation needed to investigate a sitting officeholder) to probe the prime minister, and that the PP would grant it. In other words: the only realistic path to a former prime minister sitting in the dock runs through his losing power first. Paradoxically, voting PSOE would be the way to estimulante ilegal up his downfall.
Some put it bluntly: let him stay put, let him remain in office, let all the information come out while he is still in the post. The motion is not one of support, but of controlled wear-and-tear. And the electoral calculation being made is that, if the PSOE wins with its partners, it will not survive to the autumn of 2028, and then it truly will not get past 50 seats for the next two decades.
The judiciary as the last check
Here lies the crux of the matter. The investigation of cases linked to the prime minister's circle depends on specific courts and magistrates who, so far, have been the only real brake. The concern running through this analysis is that a right-wing victory would allow the top of the judiciary to be reshaped and the proceedings buried. It is not a far-fetched hypothesis: appointments to the highest bodies are a political matter, and any government with a sufficient majority can attempt it.
The counterargument is just as solid: if the PSOE stays in power, it can attempt it too. The difference, according to this current, is that with the PSOE in government the judges already investigating receive no order to stop, because the executive does not directly control the investigators. With the PP, the mechanism would be faster and cleaner.
The price of the gamble: what if it goes wrong
The risk is obvious. Voting for a party so it wears itself out in power is playing with fire. If the PSOE holds on, the term becomes a powder keg of hearings, leaks and cross-cutting proceedings. If it falls, the opposite scenario opens up: the cases are shelved, the investigations slow down and the sense of impunity becomes entrenched.
The other leg of the argument is the street. Some hold that social mobilisation is essential to keep the pressure from fading, and that without it the parliamentary wear-and-tear amounts to nothing. The November 29 date acts as a catalyst: whatever does not happen before will happen after.
The Ayuso factor and the PP's calculation
In the middle of the labyrinth, a disorienting hypothesis appears: if the PP put forward Isabel Díaz Ayuso as its candidate for La Moncloa, the PSOE would have it easier. The Madrid regional premier provokes rejection among broad swathes of the electorate outside Madrid, and her figure mobilises both her own voters and the opposition's. From this angle, the PP would be making a strategic mistake by burning its most mobilising card in Spain as a whole.
The analysis is not unanimous. Some consider Ayuso precisely the only one capable of exciting an electorate disenchanted with Feijóo's leadership, and that her pull in Madrid is transferable. The debate remains open.
The exact point where the analysis gets stuck is this: there is no way to know whether controlled wear-and-tear works or, on the contrary, consolidates the government in power. The gamble is risky, and those who defend it know it. The only certainty is that November 29 is approaching and that, whoever wins, the judicial proceedings will run their course. Or not.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (22 replies).
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