Von der Leyen will not send commissioners to Budapest

Brussels leaves Orbán stranded in his own presidency

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen will not send commissioners to Budapest during Hungary's rotating EU presidency. The standoff between Brussels and Viktor Orbán escalates another notch, leaving the EU institution looking, in the eyes of many observers, like a chessboard where politics and punishment blur together. The decision comes after the Hungarian prime minister kept up his own courtship of Moscow while holding the chair that rotates every six months among the Twenty-Seven.

The official story speaks of institutional coherence. The story of the facts speaks of an all-out boycott: the Commission is absent from the very meetings it should be coordinating with the rotating presidency. And that is where the circus begins.

What it means that the Commission will not send commissioners to Budapest

The Council presidency is, on paper, an administrative function: convening, mediating, organizing legislative work. When the Commission decides not to set foot in the country holding that presidency, the message goes beyond protocol. What is being said, without saying it, is that Hungary is not a reliable partner even for the most routine tasks.

Some argue the measure is proportionate: Orbán has spent years eroding the rule of law and flirting with the Kremlin, and Brussels cannot pretend nothing is happening. Against it weighs the argument that the punishment targets the presidency, not the prime minister, and that the ones who pay the price are the ordinary workings of the European machinery. The result, in any case, is an uncomfortable precedent: the Commission is using its physical presence as a diplomatic weapon.

The Orbán-Brussels standoff: a timeline of a falling-out

The confrontation is not new. Orbán has turned the rotating presidency into a platform to project his foreign agenda, with visits and gestures that unsettle Western capitals. The Commission has responded by withdrawing its commissioners, a move that Brussels sells as firmness and Budapest reads as interference.

The paradox is that Hungary chairs the meetings the Commission does not attend. The presidency goes on, but limping. And meanwhile, the message sinking in with part of public opinion is that Europe runs on selective punishment depending on who is in power.

Spain, Italy and Portugal: the circus is not only Hungarian

The spotlight on Budapest obscures other fronts. Brussels keeps several proceedings open against Spain's management, and the figure circulating in the rumor mill is seven procedures in a single day. At the same time, Italy has redirected 4.6 billion euros earmarked for electric cars toward Defense, a move that leaves the country's automotive industry reeling. And Portugal has upended the deck with Spain by allowing economic activity in the Selvagens Islands (Ilhas Selvagens), claimed by the Canary Islands.

Each of these fronts has its own logic. Together they paint a picture in which the EU legislates, corrects and punishes, but also one where member states wage their own wars when it suits them.

Lagarde and Trump: buying to avoid a fight

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has called for buying more from the United States to prevent Trump from launching a trade war against the EU. The recommendation has its economic logic and its political weight: Europe bows to the tariff threat before it even materializes.

The prevailing analysis is that Trump is too powerful for European countries to do much more than the occasional symbolic diplomatic protest. Most reactions will remain gestures, with no real impact on relations with Washington. The tariff club, mon dieu.

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With this chessboard, the question is not whether there will be more boycotts, but which one comes next. The Hungarian presidency will end, the commissioners will return to Budapest, and the circus will keep spinning. What is unclear is whether anyone remembers what the EU is for when it is not punishing one of its own.