Viral Chinese video calls for invading Siberia up to Lake Baikal

A viral Chinese video claims Siberia up to Lake Baikal

A social media video with millions of views argues that China should occupy Siberia up to Lake Baikal, as well as Sakhalin and other regions of the Russian Federation, taking advantage of Russia's presumed weakness after the war in Ukraine. The proposal does not come from any official channel, but it has been enough to reopen an old geopolitical ghost: China's temptation over the Russian Far East. The discussion quickly turned to two uncomfortable questions. Can China afford a direct clash with another nuclear power? And who is really taking over Siberia, tanks or settlers?

What exactly the viral video proposes

The circulating material claims that Russia's defeat in Ukraine is inevitable and that, with the Russian army decimated, China would have a free hand to reclaim what it considers territory seized by the unequal treaties of the last emperor. The thesis includes Lake Baikal as a natural border and Sakhalin Island as a target. There is no official Chinese confirmation of any of this, and the format itself —a social media video with millions of views— invites taking it with a grain of salt.

Even so, the idea is not new. Some recall that the claim goes back a long way, to Mao's era, and that border clashes already occurred on the Amur River in 1969. The area north of the Amur, the argument goes, is ancestral Chinese culture, and since then it would have been de facto repopulated with Han settlers.

Demographics as a weapon: who really lives in Siberia?

The most repeated argument is not military but demographic. It claims China does not need to fire a shot: it is enough to let demographics do their work over decades. Silent immigration and wombs, in the words of the debate itself, would gradually change the region's composition without the need for a formal invasion.

The data discussed considerably qualify that idea. According to the figures cited, 90% of Siberia and more than 80% of the Russian Far East are Slavic, with a presence of Turkic, indigenous and Korean peoples, but few Chinese. And there is a fact that unsettles supporters of the demographic thesis: China's provinces bordering Russia —Heilongjiang, Jilin and Liaoning— are the only ones in the country losing population. Heilongjiang, which shares the most kilometres of border, would have lost more than six million inhabitants in the last decade. The climate does not attract the Han ethnic group, and many young people emigrate to the east and south of the country.

The nuclear problem: two powers, thousands of warheads

The most cited obstacle is the nuclear balance. Invading a neighbour that also has thousands of nuclear warheads is not exactly a flawless plan. And some add a technical nuance: China would have more warheads and, moreover, they would work, unlike the Russian ones. It is an assertion thrown out without evidence in the debate and should be taken for what it is, just another opinion.

Against that, the comparison with Taiwan comes up again and again. If China does not dare take on an island armed to the teeth with US backing, why would it launch itself at Siberia? The answer some give is that Siberia would be easier: you can get there on foot, its inhabitants are a Chinese minority in some areas and, after Ukraine, barely any operational Russian forces would remain west of the Urals.

The precedent nobody wants to repeat: Germany and the USSR

The historical comparison hovering over the discussion is that of Germany and the Soviet Union. A pact between powers that ended in invasion and disaster for the invader. The parallel is used to warn that expansionist plans rarely go as expected.

It is also recalled that Russia is already, in practice, an economic vassal of China. If Moscow depends on the Asian giant to finance infrastructure and factories in Siberia, the question changes: why invade what you already control through financial means? Chinese loans to invest in the region are, in this sense, the real lever of influence.

Mongolia's role and China's economic influence

Mongolia appears as a key piece. China's economic and commercial influence over the country is enormous, but Ulaanbaatar plays its cards skilfully by diversifying relations with Russia, Korea, Japan, Kazakhstan and the United States. Historically, Mongolia has belonged on paper to some Chinese empires, but the reality is that the Mongols have done as they pleased, including sacking northern China when it suited them.

The episode of the African mercenaries recruited by Russia —with Russian commanders calling them disposable material— and the alleged use of educational scholarships as a trap to mobilise African students add a layer of cynicism to the matter. Ukraine has warned that it is a covert recruitment scheme. These are accusations attributed to the parties and not independently confirmed.

The ending nobody signs: when, not if?

The most repeated conclusion is that the invasion will not happen tomorrow, but that Chinese pressure on Siberia is a matter of decades, not months. The Chinese political project considers the Amur region irredent territory, and silent colonisation advances without the need for armies. On this basis, the question is not whether China will expand, but when and by what means. And there, the viral video is just the tip of the iceberg.