US pulls out of Europe: the price of pivoting to China
China controls 70% of the world's rare earths. The US is abandoning Europe as it pivots to Asia, leaving the continent without defenses or a military industry. An analysis by
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
The sheriff went off to relieve himself in the East: Europe is left without toilet paper
China controls 70% of the planet's rare earths and 90% of their production. Without them there are no missiles, no military electronics, no defense. And while the United States justifies its withdrawal from Europe as a strategic pivot toward Asia, the data show it is a shameful abandonment that leaves the continent exposed and without the industrial resources to replace the old sheriff.
Strategic abandonment: from NATO to Chinese dependence
The official narrative speaks of a "strategic withdrawal" to focus on China, but a deeper analysis reveals something cruder: the United States is leaving Europe because it is cheaper than staying, and because the NATO show no longer justifies the $10 billion a year spent on its military presence. The problem is that without that umbrella, the EU faces a reality it has ignored for decades: its military industry is unable to compete in a world where critical raw materials are in Beijing's hands.
The Chinese have already shown their power: after the tensions over Taiwan, they cut rare earth exports to the United States, and now they threaten to shut off the tap completely. The paradox is that Europe, instead of seeking agreements with China or developing alternatives, embarks on a trade war that will drive up the price of everything it imports. As one analyst quipped, "they are driving up energy prices outrageously and now they want everything we buy to be more expensive." The plan seems to be to create scarcity to justify a war, but the question is against whom.
The Middle East show and America's industrial crisis
While Europe is left hanging, the Trump administration wages a back-and-forth war with Iran. After a US strike on a communications tower in Sirik, Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded by bombing the airbase it came from. Congress, fed up with Trump's military trinc, has stripped him of powers in a resolution the president called "unpatriotic." But the real drama lies in the arms industry: US military contractors have lost their industrial know-how. "They've even forgotten how to drive a rivet," one comment sums up. Building a missile costs five million dollars, and any cheap drone can turn it into scrap.
The same crisis affects Europe. The continent not only lacks rare earths; its industrial base is crumbling. Attempts to impose tariffs on China are a band-aid that raises the cost of domestic consumption without solving the underlying problem. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine is draining ammunition stockpiles, and the threat of a trade war with China adds another layer of uncertainty.
The distraction show and the awakening of other players
While Spanish citizens amuse themselves with Netflix series and pizza, the world is being reconfigured. Alice Weidel, leader of Germany's AfD, demands that Ukraine compensate Germany for the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, attributed to Ukrainian agents. The German investigation has identified the alleged ringleader, extradited from Italy. Berlin insists on its version, but Moscow questions it, pointing out that such a sophisticated operation could not have been the work of a small group.
In parallel, Israel and the United States are moving toward unprecedented military integration, while the EU looks the other way. Israel's Knesset approved integrating the US military into its armed forces, and the US NDAA quietly backs the merger. A way of saying the sheriff is not entirely leaving: he is relocating to the Middle East, leaving Europe without the toilet paper of security.
Europe's precipice
With China controlling 70% of the rare earths and 90% of their production, Europe faces an impossible equation: either buy expensive from China, or buy nothing at all. The $10 billion that the US military presence cost was a bargain compared with what it will cost to build an autonomous defense in a world without reliable suppliers. The original article that sparked the debate summed it up bluntly: the sheriff went off to relieve himself in the East and left Europe without toilet paper. And for now, nobody seems willing to bring him a roll.
Related discussions in the forum
China controls 70% of the planet's rare earths and 90% of their production. Without them there are no missiles, no military electronics, no defense. And while the United States justifies its withdrawal from Europe as a strategic pivot toward Asia, the data show it is a shameful abandonment that leaves the continent exposed and without the industrial resources to replace the old sheriff.
Strategic abandonment: from NATO to Chinese dependence
The official narrative speaks of a "strategic withdrawal" to focus on China, but a deeper analysis reveals something cruder: the United States is leaving Europe because it is cheaper than staying, and because the NATO show no longer justifies the $10 billion a year spent on its military presence. The problem is that without that umbrella, the EU faces a reality it has ignored for decades: its military industry is unable to compete in a world where critical raw materials are in Beijing's hands.
The Chinese have already shown their power: after the tensions over Taiwan, they cut rare earth exports to the United States, and now they threaten to shut off the tap completely. The paradox is that Europe, instead of seeking agreements with China or developing alternatives, embarks on a trade war that will drive up the price of everything it imports. As one analyst quipped, "they are driving up energy prices outrageously and now they want everything we buy to be more expensive." The plan seems to be to create scarcity to justify a war, but the question is against whom.
The Middle East show and America's industrial crisis
While Europe is left hanging, the Trump administration wages a back-and-forth war with Iran. After a US strike on a communications tower in Sirik, Iran's Revolutionary Guard responded by bombing the airbase it came from. Congress, fed up with Trump's military trinc, has stripped him of powers in a resolution the president called "unpatriotic." But the real drama lies in the arms industry: US military contractors have lost their industrial know-how. "They've even forgotten how to drive a rivet," one comment sums up. Building a missile costs five million dollars, and any cheap drone can turn it into scrap.
The same crisis affects Europe. The continent not only lacks rare earths; its industrial base is crumbling. Attempts to impose tariffs on China are a band-aid that raises the cost of domestic consumption without solving the underlying problem. Meanwhile, the war in Ukraine is draining ammunition stockpiles, and the threat of a trade war with China adds another layer of uncertainty.
The distraction show and the awakening of other players
While Spanish citizens amuse themselves with Netflix series and pizza, the world is being reconfigured. Alice Weidel, leader of Germany's AfD, demands that Ukraine compensate Germany for the 2022 sabotage of the Nord Stream pipelines, attributed to Ukrainian agents. The German investigation has identified the alleged ringleader, extradited from Italy. Berlin insists on its version, but Moscow questions it, pointing out that such a sophisticated operation could not have been the work of a small group.
In parallel, Israel and the United States are moving toward unprecedented military integration, while the EU looks the other way. Israel's Knesset approved integrating the US military into its armed forces, and the US NDAA quietly backs the merger. A way of saying the sheriff is not entirely leaving: he is relocating to the Middle East, leaving Europe without the toilet paper of security.
Europe's precipice
With China controlling 70% of the rare earths and 90% of their production, Europe faces an impossible equation: either buy expensive from China, or buy nothing at all. The $10 billion that the US military presence cost was a bargain compared with what it will cost to build an autonomous defense in a world without reliable suppliers. The original article that sparked the debate summed it up bluntly: the sheriff went off to relieve himself in the East and left Europe without toilet paper. And for now, nobody seems willing to bring him a roll.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (97 replies).
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