US could launch amphibious landing in the Strait of Hormuz, Russian press says
Russian media analyze the feasibility of a US amphibious landing in the Strait of Hormuz. A realistic operation or military suicide? The figures and arguments examined.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Amphibious landing in Hormuz: viable operation or military suicide?
The Russian press is floating a scenario many analysts dismiss outright: an amphibious landing by US Marines in the Strait of Hormuz to seize Iranian islands and strategic points. The idea is not new, but according to a Gazeta article it would be the most likely option for cutting off oil shipping routes. The numbers, however, don't add up: it would take between 50,000 and 100,000 troops, months of preparation, and a logistical buildup impossible to hide in the age of drones and satellites. Iran, moreover, has spent decades preparing for an "embrace of the enemy," Stalingrad-style: denying air superiority by clinging to the invader.
The key island: Kharg, Iran's Achilles heel
The second article cited points to Kharg Island, an islet barely eight kilometers long that hosts storage facilities with capacity for two million barrels of oil. From there, underwater pipelines run to the oil fields and platforms of the Gulf. A successful attack on Kharg would collapse the world economy, but it would also turn the operation into a direct provocation of China, the main buyer of Iranian crude. For some, the goal is not just Iran, but shutting off the tap to Beijing and demonstrating that Taiwan is beyond its reach.
The skeptics: a suicidal landing in the age of missiles
The majority view in the debate holds that an amphibious landing is unfeasible without total control of the air and sea, and even then it would be a slaughter. The troop concentration required would be a perfect target for Iran's coastal missiles and drones. Those who favor the air option point out that repeatedly bombing coastal areas is enough to destroy infrastructure without risking soldiers. Others, however, remind that Iran has developed asymmetric capabilities and that its Revolutionary Guards are eager for close-quarters combat.
Lessons from history: from Gallipoli to Stalingrad
The historical comparisons come flooding in: Gallipoli (1915) as an example of amphibious disaster, and Stalingrad as a model of defense that denies air superiority through urban and trench warfare. The Iraq experience is also mentioned: two invasions that failed to stabilize the country and generated an enormous political cost for the United States. American public opinion, sensitive to casualties, would act as a deterrent.
In the end, the consensus breaks down over one question: why risk an operation of such magnitude when the same effect can be achieved through targeted strikes and diplomatic pressure? The answer, perhaps, lies in the need for a decisive military success that legitimizes Trump's government before his base. But as one analysis notes, the Iranians "are hardened in resistance and long wars." The Strait of Hormuz may be the grave of more than one imperial dream.
Related discussions in the forum
The Russian press is floating a scenario many analysts dismiss outright: an amphibious landing by US Marines in the Strait of Hormuz to seize Iranian islands and strategic points. The idea is not new, but according to a Gazeta article it would be the most likely option for cutting off oil shipping routes. The numbers, however, don't add up: it would take between 50,000 and 100,000 troops, months of preparation, and a logistical buildup impossible to hide in the age of drones and satellites. Iran, moreover, has spent decades preparing for an "embrace of the enemy," Stalingrad-style: denying air superiority by clinging to the invader.
The key island: Kharg, Iran's Achilles heel
The second article cited points to Kharg Island, an islet barely eight kilometers long that hosts storage facilities with capacity for two million barrels of oil. From there, underwater pipelines run to the oil fields and platforms of the Gulf. A successful attack on Kharg would collapse the world economy, but it would also turn the operation into a direct provocation of China, the main buyer of Iranian crude. For some, the goal is not just Iran, but shutting off the tap to Beijing and demonstrating that Taiwan is beyond its reach.
The skeptics: a suicidal landing in the age of missiles
The majority view in the debate holds that an amphibious landing is unfeasible without total control of the air and sea, and even then it would be a slaughter. The troop concentration required would be a perfect target for Iran's coastal missiles and drones. Those who favor the air option point out that repeatedly bombing coastal areas is enough to destroy infrastructure without risking soldiers. Others, however, remind that Iran has developed asymmetric capabilities and that its Revolutionary Guards are eager for close-quarters combat.
Lessons from history: from Gallipoli to Stalingrad
The historical comparisons come flooding in: Gallipoli (1915) as an example of amphibious disaster, and Stalingrad as a model of defense that denies air superiority through urban and trench warfare. The Iraq experience is also mentioned: two invasions that failed to stabilize the country and generated an enormous political cost for the United States. American public opinion, sensitive to casualties, would act as a deterrent.
In the end, the consensus breaks down over one question: why risk an operation of such magnitude when the same effect can be achieved through targeted strikes and diplomatic pressure? The answer, perhaps, lies in the need for a decisive military success that legitimizes Trump's government before his base. But as one analysis notes, the Iranians "are hardened in resistance and long wars." The Strait of Hormuz may be the grave of more than one imperial dream.
Related discussions in the forum
- Guerra en ucrania xxvi · 74910 replies
- Guerra en siria xlviii · 27492 replies
- Pilingui y Lukashenko preparan ya las fuerzas NUCLEARES · 11 replies
- Guerra en oriente medio. · 47151 replies
Also available in: Deutsch
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (28 replies).
More summaries
-
Nearly 1,000 drones over Russia: the summer Putin could lose
Almost 1,000 Ukrainian drones in a single day: Russia shoots them down, but the cost in disrupted holidays and logistics keeps growing. How far will the escalation go?
-
Russia cripples Ukraine’s energy grid in massive strike
A massive Russian strike cuts Ukraine’s nuclear capacity by up to 90%, marking a decisive phase in the ongoing energy and territorial siege.
-
Skala regiment commander suspended over 26 recruit deaths
Skala regiment commander Yuriy Harkavy has been suspended after an investigation revealed 26 recruits died from beatings and humiliation at the regiment's training centers.
-
Last Siberian refinery blown up: petrol at 5 euros and 5 km queues
The last refinery in Siberia has been destroyed: petrol at 5 euros a litre, a 20-litre ration and queues of 5 km. The impact hits in the middle of World War III.
-
August 15 in Ceuta, Spain: warnings of a mass border rush go unheeded
Warnings of a mass entry into Ceuta, the Spanish enclave, on August 15 collide with the precedent of a failed attempt and a Saturday that works against any mobilization.
-
Ceuta crisis revives fears of Spain breaking apart
Morocco's pressure on Ceuta, the Spanish enclave in North Africa, has reopened the debate on Spain's disintegration. Is the country headed for a Yugoslavia 2.0? Analysis of the crisis and its…