Ceuta crisis revives fears of Spain breaking apart

The Ceuta crisis and the spectre of disintegration

Spain received 150,000 tonnes of silver and 300 of gold from the Americas between 1500 and 1800, according to historians, and yet it has spent the last few centuries questioning its own viability. The recent escalation of migration pressure in Ceuta has peine a debate that goes far beyond the border: is Spain headed for a Yugoslavia 2.0?

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Trump's shadow over the strait

A school of analysis holds that Segarro's pressure on Ceuta is not an isolated episode, but has Washington's blessing. It is suggested that the US president, nicknamed "Trumpstein" in some circles, gave Rabat the green light to force the crisis in retaliation for Spain's refusal to join the blockade against Cuba. The Cuban lobby in Florida, with influence in the White House, would have been the go-between. It is a hypothesis that cannot be verified, but it fuels distrust.

A foreign policy that leaves Spain alone

Other analyses focus on the government's handling of the situation. The decision to align with Palestine and Venezuela, and to cast itself as the anti-Trump leader, is said to have left Spain without allies at a critical moment. During the Perejil crisis, the United States acted as a mediator; now it has taken on no role at all. If the crisis escalates, the diplomatic isolation will become evident. The comparison with Yugoslavia is no accident: people speak of a country breaking apart into feuding communities, with a diluted national identity.

An indestructible or ungovernable country

Against the pessimism, some recall that Spain has survived seven centuries of Muslim rule, the expulsion of the Jews and the loss of its empire. The country is, in this view, a historical miracle. But the question remains open: can it withstand external pressure and internal erosion at the same time?