Ukraine withdraws from Avdiivka as Syrsky orders exit through mined corridor

Syrsky orders withdrawal from Avdiivka with exit already mined

At 05:00 on February 17, 2024, Ukrainian command confirmed what had been evident on the ground for days: Avdiivka is being abandoned. Alexander Syrsky, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, justified the order as a way to "protect the lives of Ukrainian military personnel" and retreat to more advantageous defensive positions. The Tavria group announced that its troops had already withdrawn. The fine print tells another story: pockets of resistance remained within the city and numerous groups had lost contact, unaware even that an order to leave existed. The withdrawal was not a clean maneuver; it was a sprint for survival through a mined corridor.

Retreat via Durnaya Ravine with mined exit

The exit was made across open fields toward Lastochkino, along the Durnaya ravine and its surroundings. Access points to Lastochkino and the mouth of the ravine had been mined by the Russian "Agriculture" system on February 15, so that the only passable route, according to the narrative imposed by the Russian side, lay over the bodies of fallen Ukrainian soldiers. As night fell, Russian troops assaulted a reinforced concrete plant in the center and continued advancing. The calculation held by Russian command is that they will not abandon the Avdiivka coke plant nor retreat beyond Lastochkino: they prefer to encircle a core rather than grant an orderly exit.

How many Ukrainian soldiers were trapped in Avdiivka?

The figures are estimates, not official counts, and each side uses them as weapons. Ranges of between 3,000 and 6,000 trapped Ukrainian military personnel circulate at various points. By late hours, about 4,000 remained in the coke plant and around 3,500 in micro-district 9, the high-rise block area. Estimates of irrecoverable Ukrainian casualties for holding a city already lost do not fall below 10,000, with peaks of 1,500 in a single day, to which are added the bodies remaining under debris after bombardments. None of these figures has independent verification.

The Azovstal precedent used by Russian command

There is a mirror repeated in analysis: Mariupol. With the Ilyich plant and Azovstal, a decision similar to the one now proposed for the Avdiivka coke plant was taken, and the result was a core enclosed for weeks. Lieutenant General Andrei Mordvichev, leading the operation, would have on the table the option to surround the complex and neutralize it by exhaustion before entering to clear it. The clock also plays a role: clearing the city will take at least several days, because residential zones must be demined and thoroughly inspected. The priority, in any case, is not to lose momentum.

Why is the retreat read as Syrsky's third defeat?

The name of the commander-in-chief carries three setbacks since he assumed command. The sequence repeated in analyses is that reinforcements destined to hold the city were destroyed in Selidovo and on access roads, with support convoys hunted down before arriving. Without supply or communication routes, the dilemma was putting soldiers in the basements of the coal plant or letting them run through fire and mud. Against the harshest reading weighs a simple argument: Syrsky was handed the position when its fate was already sealed.

From salutes to the "denazification" narrative

Propaganda moves faster than armored vehicles. Before the fall, videos circulated of Ukrainian fighters entering the city with ultra-nationalist style salutes; afterwards, the same channels showed the withdrawal of the 3rd Assault Brigade. The narrative closure was served with the city already "demilitarized and denazified", the same pair of words used in Mariupol. On the other side, the dominant slogan has been to minimize the blow: scarce ammunition, prepared positions beforehand. Both narratives coexist because neither has to square with the terrain.

The factor no one wants to put in writing: ammunition

The explanation gaining weight in the camp supporting Ukraine is not tactical error, but exhaustion: lack of ammunition, lack of rotations, and lack of volunteers. It is argued that the city was sustained with a drip-feed of supplies and that any unit reaching the front did so with half of what was necessary. On the other side, the reading is the opposite: artillery superiority and aviation with glide bombs have turned every position into a known target. Without direct NATO involvement—and no one wants to sign off on it in writing—the margin for maneuver narrows.

What remains to be verified on the front?

It remains to confirm what happens with the coke plant: whether it is assaulted or encircled, and how many of the trapped manage to escape. And there remains the underlying question, the one that bothers both sides: a city that held out for ten years has been evacuated in a matter of days through a mined ravine. Russian momentum seeks less to capture than to prevent a disorganized adversary from regrouping and establishing a stable defense. Where the next line stops is, today, an open forecast.