Ukraine War: Two Years Stuck, Ruble Hits 100 to the Euro

Ukraine: Two Years of War and the Front Remains Stalled

The Ukraine war hasn't stalled; it never moved fast enough for that. Two years since the invasion, the front advances meters, not provinces, and the narrative—from Brussels, Moscow, and the news—has detached from the map. In February 2024, with the mentioned exchange rate of 1 euro to 100 rubles and Avdiivka recently fallen, the conversation shifted from 'who wins tomorrow' to 'who endures longer'.

Why the Russian Economy is Reportedly Growing at 3%?

This figure circulates as ammunition. Some analyses wield it as proof that sanctions have failed and Russia has entered a war of attrition with its economy in order. The pillars supporting this narrative are three figures: growth around 3%, low public debt, and enormous military spending.

The other half of the argument is less striking. This growth comes at the cost of inflation—cited as high as 7%—and military spending that consumes tax revenue. The ruble at 100 to the euro, interpreted by some as a punishment and by others as a simple consequence of an exporting economy, serves both sides. Each camp finds confirmation of their view in the same numbers.

Russian Oil and the Discount Tale

Here lies the most inconvenient detail for the sanctions narrative. In the figures discussed, Urals crude is trading at $74.50, compared to Brent at $81.62 and West Texas at $79. The discount existed—it once hovered around $20—and has narrowed to about seven. Selling cheaply to India or China and having another party repurchase it at market price benefits the intermediary, not the sanctioning entity.

Some argue that the cost ultimately falls on the European taxpayer in an unending list: weapons bought from the US, equipment gifted by Eastern European countries, reconstruction, and war pensions. It sounds like rhetoric. Gas station prices don't entirely contradict it.

Avdiivka, the F-16, and Ukraine's Attrition

The fall of Avdiivka, a city the size of Bakhmut, was framed as a tactical withdrawal but read as a collapse. For some, it's proof that Moscow is advancing without haste and without pause; for others, it's the same old story: one more city, one more year. The comparison to Germany after Kursk in 1943 is made without embarrassment.

Meanwhile, a figure often overlooked on television: it costs Ukraine to recruit 500,000 soldiers. And the F-16 remains the game changer with a three-month outlook, just as tanks and Himars were before. Each headline announcement is also an inventory that dwindles.

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No one knows when this will end. If the front remains as it is, the most likely victory for each side will be a disguised ceasefire. That no one signs it and the same map remains hanging on the wall should surprise no one.