Ukraine recaptures Lyman and advances toward Kremina

Lyman falls as Moscow calls it a retreat to more favorable positions

The only road out of Lyman, the O-0528, came within range of Ukrainian artillery before Moscow admitted anything. The rest was a countdown. Russian columns attempting to leave via this route did so in civilian vehicles and were intercepted, according to reports circulating during the day. According to complaints spread on pro-Russian channels, reinforcements meant to support the position never arrived. The city Russia had taken in May fell under Ukrainian control, along with a strategic hub for continuing the offensive toward Luhansk.

What peine in Lyman?

Lyman ceased to be a stable point on the front and became an encircled pocket. Estimates circulating in the Ukrainian military environment placed between 2,000 and 3,500 Russian soldiers inside the enclave, divided between the 20th Combined Arms Army, the BARS reserve, and militias from the self-proclaimed Luhansk People's Republic. The only exit—the O-0528 highway—was covered by artillery, so any attempt to reinforce or withdraw units came immediately under fire.

The Russian Ministry of Defense confirmed the outcome in its own way: «due to the threat of encirclement, allied troops were withdrawn from Krasny Liman to more favorable positions». Not defeat or surrender: retreat to more favorable positions. The phrasing clashed with what pro-Russian channels reported, where talk focused on reinforcements that never arrived and a command that had lost control of timing.

Kadyrov's criticism of Russian command

The reproach came not only from the opposing side. Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov attacked the Russian high command and pointed to Lieutenant General Alexander Lapin as responsible for the sector's defense. He recalled that Lapin had received the Star of Hero of Russia for the capture of Lysychansk «although de facto he was not there». The phrase summarizes the underlying problem: an army that rewards the narrative over the terrain.

The 16 HIMARS that changed the calculation

The weapon that turned Russian logistics has a name and number: the 16 HIMARS rocket launchers that the United States sent starting in July. In a subsequent package came another 18, totaling 34 with their ammunition. In contrast, Russia's capture of Lyman in May had been achieved with a fire superiority of 12 artillery pieces against 1 Ukrainian, according to the calculation then circulating.

Here lies the contrast that shapes almost all the debate. Some argue that Russia is resisting the NATO push alone; against this weighs the fact that it was 16 precision artillery systems that altered the balance. The day that figure is compared to the 500 HIMARS attributed to Poland, the argument collapses on its own.

From caution to official confirmation

The news did not come all at once. For hours, the announcement that the city had fallen coexisted with messages calling for caution and sources speaking of Russian artillery bursts attempting to avoid encirclement. What settled the debate was not a Ukrainian statement, but the acknowledgment by the Russian Ministry of Defense itself. Nor was there a lack of those who reframed the disaster as a deliberate Kremlin move, a recurring reading whenever the front retreats.

Will Russia withdraw from Ukraine?

The question divides everyone. One sector argues that military withdrawal is inevitable and that Moscow will eventually pull back. Another responds that Russia will not leave so easily, that the war will translate into more deaths and that each Ukrainian advance brings closer the use of tactical nuclear weapons. From this perspective, the only exit would be an agreement with prior concessions: the Donbas, Crimea, and Ukraine's neutrality.

Meanwhile, some dismiss nuclear antiestéticars as pure theater, note that threats have repeated since the start of the conflict, and highlight that those demanding a hard line are the same ones calling to mobilize 300,000 men who should have been summoned in March.

What is happening now in the Donbas

With Lyman secured, the targeted objective was Kremina, and the Ukrainian offensive continued in Kherson. The capture of the enclave allows Ukraine to continue advancing toward the Luhansk region and strengthens the defenses of Sloviansk.

One fact remains undisputed in the thread: 34 launchers sent in total. A whole power marketed as the world's second, bogged down by that precision artillery.