Twelve predictions for a Spain coming apart at the seams

Spain's future in 12 predictions that smell of collapse

Is Spain's political system falling apart, or just shedding its skin? A futurology exercise circulating in sceptical circles sketches a ten-year horizon in which the monarchy faces a referendum, the PSOE (Spain's main centre-left party) fades away, Catalonia and the Basque Country break away, Ceuta and Melilla change hands, and violence stops being the exception. It sounds apocalyptic, but every point comes with its own cargo of arguments.

The end of the usual parties

The most hotly debated point is the disappearance of the PSOE. The comparison with the fate of other European socialist parties supports the thesis: sister parties are already in the process of extinction. Against it, critics recall that Spanish voters have shown a loyalty that is hard to break, even with a leadership bogged down in a pivot that has left historic causes by the wayside, such as support for the Sahrawi people. The most reasonable conclusion is not disappearance, but a residual party, incapable of repeating its majorities. The PP (the main conservative party) is not spared either: the lack of leadership with populist pull is cited as a sentence to irrelevance.

The map cracks

Handing over Ceuta and Melilla is not a far-fetched idea for those watching Spain's foreign policy and migratory pressure. Some point out that the preliminary phase is already under way. The secession of Catalonia and the Basque Country is framed not as an explosion, but as an administrative fragmentation of the state: administrative law, read closely, would already be executing the separation through the back door. Disaffection with the European Union is taken for granted; the question is whether the discontent will crystallise into anything more than polls.

Violence and the generational divide

The rise in violence is described as a trend already visible in the evolution of intentional homicides. The gap between young and old is the other major focus: pensions, housing and the labour market feed an anti-old-person discourse which, according to one analysis, would not be spontaneous but directed, to divert attention from the real causes. The result would be social polarisation with blurred middle classes and a new battle line between the governed and the governors.

God and urban planning switch sides

The Catholic Church is not left out: it has survived schisms for centuries, but the turn towards contemporary positions is costing it credibility. Some see a Catholicism reborn as a political rallying force among content creators. On the physical plane, urban planning is segmenting: gated communities versus growing slums and conflict in urban centres.

With such a panorama, sceptics have good reason to reply that none of these predictions is new: the apocalypse has been arriving for decades and never quite lands. But the full list, with its mix of politics, economics and culture, offers a map of the real antiestéticars of those who do not trust the official narrative. And if nothing happens, there will always be the irony of having predicted it all.