Tweet attributes to Starmer blaming climate for migration
A tweet attributes to Starmer blaming climatic factors for the arrival of militarily aged Muslim men in Europe; criticism responds with demographics.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Starmer attributes the arrival of migrants in Europe to climate
According to a tweet circulating in the thread, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer claims that climate change is the main reason why Muslim men of military age are arriving in the United Kingdom and Europe. No technical report supporting this is cited in the thread. Several participants reject the thesis: some see it as an excuse not to discuss demographics, while others question, with reservation, why this selective climate only pushes adult males.
What support does Starmer's thesis have?
The thread contains no official document, study, or statistical series accompanying the statement. It is, therefore, a political thesis without technical support cited in the thread, and several participants receive it not as a diagnosis, but as a way to evade the uncomfortable question.
The alternative argument presented in the thread is simple and focuses on demographics and economics. According to jotace, population growth in countries of origin, with limited resources and economies unable to absorb labor at the same rate, would explain the flow on its own. Another participant, nosinmiFalcon, recalls the institutional destruction of Libya trinc external interventions. Several critics point out that if climate were the dominant cause, the profile of those arriving should be more balanced in age, sens, and condition.
The case of Libya: from 1.49 million to 7.4 million
The data presented in the thread is about Libya, a semi-desert country that, according to jotace, went from 1.49 million inhabitants to 7.4 million in less than a lifetime. What is debated is the cause.
One interpretation, jotace's, attributes this to pure demographic pressure: more people in the same desert, with or without more heat. Another, nosinmiFalcon's, recalls that the Libyan expansion was concentrated during Gaddafi's rule, and what trinc was state collapse after foreign intervention. That is, according to this version, the military factor, not the meteorological one, pushed migration. No data is provided in the thread to separate these two factors.
Nigeria and the 2050 horizon: 450-500 million people
Jardinero Fiel holds that the projection for Nigeria is 450 to 500 million inhabitants by 2050. For him, neither hunger, suffocating heat, nor disease has slowed down birth rates, suggesting that emigration is a response to demographic pressure and not the thermometer.
jotace recounts an example illustrating the family dimension of the phenomenon: in Ganvié, the lake town known as the Venice of Africa, a household unit of a man with three wives came to have 23 children. One of the women sold fish on her way from the stilt where they lived. His account includes polygamy, mortality, and scarcity.
Why doesn't climate push women and children too?
This is one of the objections repeated in the thread, and it has not received a response from Starmer. Several participants argue that if the cause were climatic, the composition of flows should include women and minors with the same logic. What is discussed is a predominantly male, working-age pattern, which several attribute to economic factors.
This leads to the most discussed proposals in the exchange: limiting polygamy, controlling birth rates, or imposing single-child policies. These are ideas thrown into the thread without development.
The thread provides no series that separates climatic migration from economic migration for these flows; the discussion remains at the assertion attributed to Starmer. And it remains there, without resolution in the thread.
According to a tweet circulating in the thread, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer claims that climate change is the main reason why Muslim men of military age are arriving in the United Kingdom and Europe. No technical report supporting this is cited in the thread. Several participants reject the thesis: some see it as an excuse not to discuss demographics, while others question, with reservation, why this selective climate only pushes adult males.
What support does Starmer's thesis have?
The thread contains no official document, study, or statistical series accompanying the statement. It is, therefore, a political thesis without technical support cited in the thread, and several participants receive it not as a diagnosis, but as a way to evade the uncomfortable question.
The alternative argument presented in the thread is simple and focuses on demographics and economics. According to jotace, population growth in countries of origin, with limited resources and economies unable to absorb labor at the same rate, would explain the flow on its own. Another participant, nosinmiFalcon, recalls the institutional destruction of Libya trinc external interventions. Several critics point out that if climate were the dominant cause, the profile of those arriving should be more balanced in age, sens, and condition.
The case of Libya: from 1.49 million to 7.4 million
The data presented in the thread is about Libya, a semi-desert country that, according to jotace, went from 1.49 million inhabitants to 7.4 million in less than a lifetime. What is debated is the cause.
One interpretation, jotace's, attributes this to pure demographic pressure: more people in the same desert, with or without more heat. Another, nosinmiFalcon's, recalls that the Libyan expansion was concentrated during Gaddafi's rule, and what trinc was state collapse after foreign intervention. That is, according to this version, the military factor, not the meteorological one, pushed migration. No data is provided in the thread to separate these two factors.
Nigeria and the 2050 horizon: 450-500 million people
Jardinero Fiel holds that the projection for Nigeria is 450 to 500 million inhabitants by 2050. For him, neither hunger, suffocating heat, nor disease has slowed down birth rates, suggesting that emigration is a response to demographic pressure and not the thermometer.
jotace recounts an example illustrating the family dimension of the phenomenon: in Ganvié, the lake town known as the Venice of Africa, a household unit of a man with three wives came to have 23 children. One of the women sold fish on her way from the stilt where they lived. His account includes polygamy, mortality, and scarcity.
Why doesn't climate push women and children too?
This is one of the objections repeated in the thread, and it has not received a response from Starmer. Several participants argue that if the cause were climatic, the composition of flows should include women and minors with the same logic. What is discussed is a predominantly male, working-age pattern, which several attribute to economic factors.
This leads to the most discussed proposals in the exchange: limiting polygamy, controlling birth rates, or imposing single-child policies. These are ideas thrown into the thread without development.
The thread provides no series that separates climatic migration from economic migration for these flows; the discussion remains at the assertion attributed to Starmer. And it remains there, without resolution in the thread.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (50 replies).
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