Scotland, Wales and Ulster Demand Independence Referendums
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland sign a pact in Cardiff demanding independence referendums: the cost of British funding is already reflected.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Three Prime Ministers Seal Their Challenge to the UK in Cardiff
In Cardiff, three Prime Ministers shared a table and a signature. Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland signed a memorandum of understanding demanding independence referendums and, with them, the orderly breakup of the United Kingdom. The Telegraph reported: no calling of a vote, only a challenge. And the distance between demanding a consultation and holding it is exactly the same as that separating a stapled page from a ballot in a box.
The summit left behind a heavy phrase, attributed to the Scottish Prime Minister and picked up by the British tabloids: that Andy Burnham will have to accept his name will be in history books as the last head of government of the United Kingdom. It doesn't matter if it is bravado or prophecy. The phrase sets the framework: there is no longer any debate about whether the model holds up, but how long it will take to break.
What the Memorandum Says and What It Doesn't
It is advisable to separate the headline from the fine print. The original subtitle spoke of independence Prime Ministers who would sign a document and demand consultations. That is all: a memorandum of understanding commits to nothing, signals an intention, and orders future steps. The confusion spread quickly, and some headlines suggested a referendum that no one has called.
For a vote to happen, something is needed that does not depend on Cardiff: authorization from London. Without it, the exercise remains a political gesture, useful for mobilizing and negotiating transfers, useless for breaking anything.
Brexit: A Bill That Is Still Being Paid
The trigger has a date and a name. In the 2016 referendum, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union; Wales voted to leave. Four years later, the argument used against Scottish independence—that leaving the UK meant leaving Europe—lost its ground when the whole country abandoned the EU.
The reading imposed by much of the analysis is uncomfortable for Westminster: if the aggregate result ignored the territorial vote, what is voting good for?
In Wales, the calculation has changed through another route: adjustments to the agricultural sector trinc the exit from the single market, with trade agreements redirected towards the Gulf as consolation.
90% of Oil is Off the Coast of Scotland, but GDP is in London
The economic discussion has two versions, and both are true. Around 90% of the UK's oil and gas reserves are located off the Scottish coast. On paper, this is a first-rate negotiating card. On the ground, England's GDP per capita slightly exceeds that of Scotland, although Scotland ranks above the British average when London and the southeast are excluded.
This is where the debate becomes complicated: you cannot remove the City from the statistics and have the numbers balance. The complete breakdown of that comparison, with disaggregated regions, is what allows one to see that the supposed rich Scotland is, in fact, a less poor Scotland than the peripheral average.
The Geographic Trap and the Labor Market
There is an argument that requires no figures. Imagine Portugal within the EU and Spain outside, with the land border converted into customs. Access to the small country's continent becomes complicated; that of the large one, too. Transplanted onto an island, the problem is who controls the free movement of workers between neighbors sharing a market, an island, and pension systems.
To this is added financing. The yield on British debt continues to climb, and that is the variable no nationalism controls: it is decided in markets where people do not vote.
The Party That Will Pay for the Party
The most uncomfortable hypothesis for Labour is not independence, but reaction. Reopening the territorial question revives English nationalism among the working classes—an electorate the party needs and which may end up rewarding whoever promises to close the door from outside.
The liberal precedent of a century ago, when it went from broad majority to accompaniment, hangs over every serious analysis.
It also casts doubt on the underlying suspicion: that the real goal is not to consult, but never to stop consulting. The two lost referendums in Quebec and the third demanded serve as a mirror.
No one breaks up because they are asked for a referendum. They ask for referendums because they have been breaking up for years. That is the fact that throws skeptics off balance: you don't even have to believe in independence for the cost of funding the United Kingdom to keep rising.
In Cardiff, three Prime Ministers shared a table and a signature. Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland signed a memorandum of understanding demanding independence referendums and, with them, the orderly breakup of the United Kingdom. The Telegraph reported: no calling of a vote, only a challenge. And the distance between demanding a consultation and holding it is exactly the same as that separating a stapled page from a ballot in a box.
The summit left behind a heavy phrase, attributed to the Scottish Prime Minister and picked up by the British tabloids: that Andy Burnham will have to accept his name will be in history books as the last head of government of the United Kingdom. It doesn't matter if it is bravado or prophecy. The phrase sets the framework: there is no longer any debate about whether the model holds up, but how long it will take to break.
What the Memorandum Says and What It Doesn't
It is advisable to separate the headline from the fine print. The original subtitle spoke of independence Prime Ministers who would sign a document and demand consultations. That is all: a memorandum of understanding commits to nothing, signals an intention, and orders future steps. The confusion spread quickly, and some headlines suggested a referendum that no one has called.
For a vote to happen, something is needed that does not depend on Cardiff: authorization from London. Without it, the exercise remains a political gesture, useful for mobilizing and negotiating transfers, useless for breaking anything.
Brexit: A Bill That Is Still Being Paid
The trigger has a date and a name. In the 2016 referendum, Scotland and Northern Ireland voted overwhelmingly to remain in the European Union; Wales voted to leave. Four years later, the argument used against Scottish independence—that leaving the UK meant leaving Europe—lost its ground when the whole country abandoned the EU.
The reading imposed by much of the analysis is uncomfortable for Westminster: if the aggregate result ignored the territorial vote, what is voting good for?
In Wales, the calculation has changed through another route: adjustments to the agricultural sector trinc the exit from the single market, with trade agreements redirected towards the Gulf as consolation.
90% of Oil is Off the Coast of Scotland, but GDP is in London
The economic discussion has two versions, and both are true. Around 90% of the UK's oil and gas reserves are located off the Scottish coast. On paper, this is a first-rate negotiating card. On the ground, England's GDP per capita slightly exceeds that of Scotland, although Scotland ranks above the British average when London and the southeast are excluded.
This is where the debate becomes complicated: you cannot remove the City from the statistics and have the numbers balance. The complete breakdown of that comparison, with disaggregated regions, is what allows one to see that the supposed rich Scotland is, in fact, a less poor Scotland than the peripheral average.
The Geographic Trap and the Labor Market
There is an argument that requires no figures. Imagine Portugal within the EU and Spain outside, with the land border converted into customs. Access to the small country's continent becomes complicated; that of the large one, too. Transplanted onto an island, the problem is who controls the free movement of workers between neighbors sharing a market, an island, and pension systems.
To this is added financing. The yield on British debt continues to climb, and that is the variable no nationalism controls: it is decided in markets where people do not vote.
The Party That Will Pay for the Party
The most uncomfortable hypothesis for Labour is not independence, but reaction. Reopening the territorial question revives English nationalism among the working classes—an electorate the party needs and which may end up rewarding whoever promises to close the door from outside.
The liberal precedent of a century ago, when it went from broad majority to accompaniment, hangs over every serious analysis.
It also casts doubt on the underlying suspicion: that the real goal is not to consult, but never to stop consulting. The two lost referendums in Quebec and the third demanded serve as a mirror.
No one breaks up because they are asked for a referendum. They ask for referendums because they have been breaking up for years. That is the fact that throws skeptics off balance: you don't even have to believe in independence for the cost of funding the United Kingdom to keep rising.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (200 replies).
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