Turkey-Israel tensions: is NATO breaking apart?

Turkey-Israel: the standoff that puts NATO at risk

The Atlantic Alliance doesn't break over a speech; it breaks when one ally attacks another. The clash between Turkey and Israel, with attacks on Turkish bases in Syria and a barrage of Iranian missiles over Israeli territory, has peine a scenario many considered buried: the dissolution of NATO. And at the center of the earthquake lies the uncomfortable question: what does Washington do when two of its partners are killing each other?

The Trump factor: bluff or roadmap

Skepticism prevails. The idea that the US president would abandon the Alliance sounds like a negotiating gambit, posturing to extract concessions from European partners. But others point out that the White House has already shown that multilateral commitments are not worth the paper they're written on when they clash with its interests. "The U.S.A. is NATO and NATO is the U.S.A.": this equation, repeated in geopolitical analysis, has a direct economic reading. Without Washington's nuclear and logistical umbrella, Europe would face a military bill no one has been willing to budget for.

The three-bloc scenario: fiction or plan B

Among the most striking speculations of the moment is a reordering into three major blocs: Eurasia, America and Africa. It sounds like science fiction, but some are already floating it as the natural outcome of a post-NATO world. The nuclear weapons gathering dust since the Cold War regain prominence in these hypotheses. The only certainty is the cost: fragmentation on that scale would rewrite supply chains, energy prices and defense spending for half the world.

It remains to be seen whether the Turkish-Israeli standoff is the beginning of the end or just another passing storm. But the question is already on the table: if the Alliance breaks apart, who pays the bill?