Trump threatens BRICS with 100% tariffs over dollar

Trump threatens BRICS with 100% tariffs if they abandon the dollar

Donald Trump has issued an ultimatum to BRICS countries: either commit to not creating a common currency or backing another currency to replace the dollar, or face 100% tariffs and lose access to the US market. The message, posted on his official account, leaves no room for doubt: "There is no chance that BRICS will replace the US dollar in international trade," he states. Reactions have been swift; from orthodox analysis to more conspiratorial views, the consensus is that the threat arrives too late and misfires.

The dollar as a political weapon: from the Federal Reserve to the club

The first line of fire targets the underlying contradiction. The United States has used the dollar as a sanctioning tool—Russia being the most recent example—and now demands that no one stops using it. "Let me get this straight: they sanction Russia by banning the use of the dollar, but threaten them if they stop using it," summarizes one comment capturing the confusion. The argument holds water: if the greenback is both a reserve currency and a punishment tool, affected countries have incentives to seek alternatives.

More skeptical voices point out that the alternative does not exist. The dollar remains the dominant medium of exchange in international trade, and BRICS are "a cage of crickets with conflicting interests," according to another participant. China needs to sell to the US in dollars; Brazil, India, and South Africa have seen their currencies depreciate against the greenback in recent years. In this context, the threat may work in the short term: "China cannot risk having those tariffs applied," argues an analysis invoking Trump's negotiation playbook.

What would happen if the 100% tariffs were enforced?

This question runs through the entire debate. The most repeated answer is that it would backfire. "If the USA imposes 100% tariffs on all BRICS, what it will provoke is its own isolation," warns one message. The mechanism is well-known: tariffs make imported goods more expensive, companies pass the extra cost to consumers, and inflation skyrockets. "Does he really think the US population will accept nearly 100% inflation on many things?" asks another participant.

International trade is one of the main sources of collective wealth, liberal positions remind us. Tariffs "reduce exchanges between countries and cause price increases due to lack of competition." The result, they add, is "the sure path to poverty." The paradox is that Trump presents himself as a defender of free markets while applying protectionist measures that his own ideological allies would reject.

De-dollarization: reality or mirage?

The data cited in the debate point in opposite directions. On one hand, Saudi Arabia has not renewed the petrodollar agreement, a symbolic gesture some interpret as the beginning of the end. On the other, BRICS currencies have depreciated against the dollar: the Brazilian real has exceeded 6 per dollar, the Russian ruble hovers around 107, the Indian rupee at 84, and the Chinese yuan at 7.27. "They call the theft of reserves de-dollarization now," one participant jokes.

The discussion shifts to China's role. For twenty years, it has absorbed global manufacturing, and today it controls entire supply chains. "What alternatives are there to antibiotics that only the Chinese have?" one asks. The dependence is mutual: China needs the US market, but the US needs Chinese products. In this symmetry, the tariff threat is a double-edged sword.

The end of empire: predictions and prophecies

The general tone is that the United States has lost the initiative. "The empire is VERY nervous," summarizes one message. Comparisons with the USSR appear several times: a country projecting military power while its population subsists under increasingly poor conditions. "Rome fell and the world continued," another reminds us. The difference is that Rome did not have a money printer.

The most repeated proposal to strengthen the dollar is not precisely orthodox: backing it with gold. "Having the perk of the infinite printer and going around threatening everyone with using their little stamps has its days numbered," one participant concludes. This idea, circulating in libertarian circles for decades, gains ground when the issuer of the reserve currency uses its position as a weapon.

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History is not written yet. Trump could secure a formal commitment from BRICS and present it as a victory. Or he could trigger a tariff escalation that accelerates the very thing he intends to avoid. What seems clear is that the dollar is no longer what it was: confidence cannot be imposed by decree.