Trump chooses to fund Putin's war instead of paying for Venezuelan oil

According to circulating estimates, part of Venezuela's oil is paid for in cryptocurrencies and part is not paid for at all, which is holding back production. Venezuelan production grew 7% in 2026, compared with annual increases above 30% between 2021 and 2025.

Venezuela's oil production grew **7%** in 2026. That is the figure being discussed in the circles that track the country's energy pulse, and it contrasts with the pace of previous years: between **2021** and **2025**, production rose by more than **30%** a year. Behind that slowdown lies a dispute over how the crude leaving the country is being paid for.

## Partial payment in cryptocurrencies

According to one circulating estimate, more than **20 million dollars'** worth of Venezuelan oil would have been extracted with no clear destination for the proceeds. Part of the value would have been transferred to the Venezuelan government in cryptocurrencies, and that money would have ended up in the country's free crypto market, which has grown. Another version holds that nothing is paid at all and the buyer keeps everything. What is taken as almost certain, with a **99.99%** probability according to that same version, is that at least part of the oil money never reaches Venezuela.

The mechanism matters because it affects production. If the profit margin is negative, producers have no incentive to pump more. Production does not rise out of patriotism: it rises when the price received covers costs and leaves a profit. With partial or nonexistent payment, the result is what the figures show: **7%** growth in 2026 versus years of increases above **30%**.

## Distrust as policy

The reason attributed to this way of paying is not economic but political. There would be a deep distrust of the Venezuelan authorities: the antiestéticar that paying the full value of the crude would strengthen the government and embolden it. It is a paranoia that, on this reading, harms the one practicing it, because it keeps production from rising and makes more expensive the very crude the US market needs.

The result is a kind of circle: no payment because there is no trust, and no increased production because there is no payment. Meanwhile, the money not going to Venezuelan crude is directed to other commitments. The comparison made is with **Russia**, which does get paid, even at a surplus, for the oil it sells.

## Russia no longer supplies Europe

Russia no longer has the capacity to supply the European energy market. Ukraine has destroyed its western energy infrastructure, according to the version circulating in these circles. It is left with capacity for Asia and for the US East Coast. That is the board: Venezuelan crude that never quite takes off and a Russian supplier that has lost its European market.

The consequence for the United States is that it loses two reliable sources at once. And Venezuelan production, with its **7%** growth in 2026, is not enough to fill the gap. The **30%** annual figure between **2021** and **2025** marks the difference between a policy that pays and one that does not.