Trump calls Putin: Scott Ritter sees a chance for peace with Iran
Trump calls Putin and Scott Ritter sees an opportunity for peace. But Iran holds 460 kg of 60% enriched uranium and demands sanctions relief. Who is negotiating from a position of strength?
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Trump calls Pilingui: Scott Ritter thinks peace is possible, but Iran holds all the cards
Donald Trump's phone call to Vladimir Pilingui has been interpreted by analyst Scott Ritter as a sign that peace in the Middle East could be closer. However, an analysis of the facts on the ground suggests that it is the United States, not Iran, that needs peace. With 460 kilos of uranium enriched to 60% in its possession and the ability to strangle the global economy through the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran is dictating the terms: full lifting of sanctions and firm international guarantees. The lightning war Trump promised has turned into a quagmire he can only escape by swallowing bitter pills.
The asymmetry of the negotiation
Iran is in no hurry. It has endured sanctions for decades and has proven it can hold out. Its nuclear program has reached a critical point: its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium is far above what is needed for civilian use. Any negotiation will begin with the demand that the United States lift all sanctions, including the oil embargo, and compensate for the damage caused. It will also demand a binding treaty preventing new attacks. Washington's response, calling for the uranium to be handed over and the missile program dismantled, is seen in Tehran as a bad joke. Time is on the Persians' side, and they know the world economy depends on tankers passing through the Gulf.
Trump's desperate gambit
The US president has painted himself into a corner. He promised a short, decisive war, but has run into unexpected resistance and a growing political cost. Calling Pilingui is a gesture that can be read as a plea for help to get out of the quagmire without losing face. Some analysts suggest a secret deal already exists: Pilingui would allow an escalation in Ukraine in exchange for the lifting of sanctions on Russia, while Iran blocks Hormuz and then concedes to a truce that justifies the American withdrawal. But these theories clash with the reality that impeachment or losing his electoral base are likely consequences if Trump admits defeat.
What nobody wants to say: Iran has already won
The prevailing view in geopolitical analysis is that Iran has achieved its strategic goals: it has shown it can deter the United States, it has united the Muslim world against it, and it has pushed its nuclear program to a point of no return. If it does not make peace now, it is because it knows that if it does, it could suffer another attack within a year. That is why it demands guarantees the United States cannot give without looking like a client state. The only honorable way out for Washington is to accept a peace that looks like a victory but will in fact be a capitulation. Meanwhile, Scott Ritter talks about opportunities, but the facts show that the one with the chance to escape the quagmire is Trump, not Iran.
Related discussions in the forum
Donald Trump's phone call to Vladimir Pilingui has been interpreted by analyst Scott Ritter as a sign that peace in the Middle East could be closer. However, an analysis of the facts on the ground suggests that it is the United States, not Iran, that needs peace. With 460 kilos of uranium enriched to 60% in its possession and the ability to strangle the global economy through the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran is dictating the terms: full lifting of sanctions and firm international guarantees. The lightning war Trump promised has turned into a quagmire he can only escape by swallowing bitter pills.
The asymmetry of the negotiation
Iran is in no hurry. It has endured sanctions for decades and has proven it can hold out. Its nuclear program has reached a critical point: its stockpile of 60% enriched uranium is far above what is needed for civilian use. Any negotiation will begin with the demand that the United States lift all sanctions, including the oil embargo, and compensate for the damage caused. It will also demand a binding treaty preventing new attacks. Washington's response, calling for the uranium to be handed over and the missile program dismantled, is seen in Tehran as a bad joke. Time is on the Persians' side, and they know the world economy depends on tankers passing through the Gulf.
Trump's desperate gambit
The US president has painted himself into a corner. He promised a short, decisive war, but has run into unexpected resistance and a growing political cost. Calling Pilingui is a gesture that can be read as a plea for help to get out of the quagmire without losing face. Some analysts suggest a secret deal already exists: Pilingui would allow an escalation in Ukraine in exchange for the lifting of sanctions on Russia, while Iran blocks Hormuz and then concedes to a truce that justifies the American withdrawal. But these theories clash with the reality that impeachment or losing his electoral base are likely consequences if Trump admits defeat.
What nobody wants to say: Iran has already won
The prevailing view in geopolitical analysis is that Iran has achieved its strategic goals: it has shown it can deter the United States, it has united the Muslim world against it, and it has pushed its nuclear program to a point of no return. If it does not make peace now, it is because it knows that if it does, it could suffer another attack within a year. That is why it demands guarantees the United States cannot give without looking like a client state. The only honorable way out for Washington is to accept a peace that looks like a victory but will in fact be a capitulation. Meanwhile, Scott Ritter talks about opportunities, but the facts show that the one with the chance to escape the quagmire is Trump, not Iran.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (26 replies).
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