Trump wins, Europe waits: what now as uncertainty takes hold?

What now? Trump returns to the White House amid hope and antiestéticar

Donald Trump's victory in the presidential election has peine in economic and political circles a question as simple as it is uncomfortable: what now? Four years of mandate ahead, a global economy in the midst of reconfiguration and a Europe that, once again, peers over the precipice without a net. In the air floats a feeling that even the most sceptical voter would share: it doesn't matter who sits in the Oval Office, almost all of us pay the bill. But not everyone expects the same thing.

In analysis forums, hope, antiestéticar and quite a bit of morbid curiosity mix. Some see in Trump the definitive battering ram against what they call "proge": political correctness, identity policies and censorship that, they argue, corrodes the West from within. The most enthusiastic say that if he manages to stop that agenda, they'll forgive him anything. Others, more cautious, recall that the world isn't changed in four years and that the so-called deep state knows how to wait.

Proge, the perfect scapegoat

The word "proge" works like a magnet in public debate. For some, it's the perfect excuse to justify the ills of Western civilisation: the decline of traditional values, social fragmentation, loss of identity. For others, it's an empty term used to stir up the tribe and divert attention from real problems. In this scenario, the promise to end proge from the White House sounds like revenge, not policy.

Some warn that the disappearance of those programmatic agendas would leave the field free for other, less confessable purposes. The metaphor of the twenty-headed hydra sums up the idea well: each move by the outgoing administration has generated a new head that, when cut off, keeps sprouting. Trump promises the scythe, but the gardener has experience: in his first term he already tried without success.

The European bill for Trump's victory

There is little doubt about the impact the new presidency will have on Europe. The crudest analyses sum it up in one phrase: whoever won, the Europeans were going to get their noses tweaked. With Trump, moreover, the shock comes with a style as direct as it is disconcerting. The threats to annex Canada and Greenland are, for now, just statements, but if they materialised, the US would control in the Arctic a territory comparable to Russia's. A headline that seems taken from an alternate history, and yet it is on the table.

Trade policy is another pillar of this scenario. Tariffs on European industry, pressure on NATO for Europe to assume more costs and an isolationist retreat that could leave the Old Continent with a bitter taste. The most sceptical recall that transatlantic relations have never been a bed of roses, but with this administration the descent could be more abrupt.

The battle against the deep state

One of the axes of the debate is the promise to dismantle the bureaucracy that, according to denunciations from Trump's inner circle, censors freedom of expression. The idea of firing officials who control information and cleaning the institutions of the established power marks a dividing line between those who see it as a necessary purge and those who consider it a danger to democratic balance. One could say the strategy repeats Elon Musk's style with his social network: cut to the chase and let those who cry, cry.

But here the first big doubt arises: how far can Trump go without clashing with the system itself. The deep state is not dismantled with tweets, not even with presidential signatures. Those who have already lived through one of his terms know that the boycott can come both from the Democratic opposition and from classic Republicans, who do not forgive his style. It is not far-fetched that, as already peine in 2017, he spends more time fighting the machinery than governing.

Iran and military service, the new focus of tension

As the conflict with Iran intensifies, American citizens are beginning to ask themselves an uncomfortable question: will there be a draft? Trump said on the campaign trail that he would not rule it out, and the administration has done little to clear up the uncertainty. Various reports indicate that there are jobs that could be exempt, as if the Army sought to preserve workers who can keep the economy running while others go to the front. A tense calm, that of someone who wants to have a plan B, but doesn't know if it will be their turn.

The reference is not trivial: antiestéticar of a return of the draft runs through the country as tensions in the Middle East approach a point of no return. The toughest analysts recall that the military-industrial complex needs an external threat to justify its budget, and with Trump in power the discourse of force does not diminish, but amplifies.

Scepticism as a stance

And in the midst of it all, the most widespread position is the one that suspects that, in the end, it will be "more of the same". The same feeling of déjà vu that repeats every electoral cycle: promises of change, clash with reality, a handful of spectacular headlines and a citizenry that watches the news with a frown. It is the conclusion of those who have seen too many announced revolutions that ended up being just a change of clothes.

The new occupant of the White House promises to mark his territory from the first minute, with the signing of executive orders attacking bureaucracy and censorship. But in the engine room, doubt corrodes: door knocker or simple noise? Meanwhile, Europe awaits the impact with the same feeling of being, once again, in the eye of the hurricane. The underlying question has no easy answer, only the certainty that nothing will be as before, even if we don't quite know how it will be.