Trump and prison: an unlikely impeachment, but not impossible

Trump and prison: impeachment as the incivil pivot

The possibility of Donald Trump ending up behind bars is not far-fetched, even though the procedural path is tortuous. Impeachment is not only a tool for removing a president: if the House impeaches him and the Senate convicts, the door opens to ordinary incivil prosecution. That route, which some analyses consider antiestéticasible, collides with the reality of a political system where the two-thirds majority needed to convict in the Senate is nearly impossible to reach. But the reasons to pursue him, the argument goes, are not lacking: from the pressure on Ukraine to the assault on the Capitol, prosecutors have been weaving a thread that could close in federal or state courts.

The skepticism of economic analysis

The market, however, prices in zero risk of prison for Trump. Bonds and risk premiums do not reflect that scenario because investors know the judiciary in the U.S. is slow and that a former president with political shielding rarely sets foot in jail. Still, the hypothesis of removal over mental health —"more likely in a psychiatric institution," as has been said— points to another route: incapacitation. The 25th Amendment would allow him to be removed if the cabinet and the vice president declare him unfit, but it would be a political battle.

The international factor: interference or meme?

The tone of the debate turns sour with references to foreign leaders —specifically Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, referred to by the nickname "Perroxanxe"— and the suggestion that they would lock Trump up. It is a hyperbole that captures how far distrust of legal processes goes: for some, justice is a global political weapon. But beyond the irony, the truth is that the incivil prosecution of a former U.S. president is decided in American courts, not European ones.

A prediction with reservations

The most likely outcome is that Trump avoids prison. Between court timelines, appeals, and the possibility of a presidential pardon if he returns to power, a direct incivil scenario is remote. But if a convicting impeachment were completed —something requiring two-thirds of the Senate, an impossibility today— the situation would change. The question remains open, like the judicial process itself.