Tomás Gómez dismisses early polls, points to regional elections
Tomás Gómez argues that inflation, judicial proceedings, and 2027 budgets, not the central government, dictate Spain's electoral calendar.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Tomás Gómez points to regional elections as the key to the calendar
Will Pedro Sánchez bring forward general elections? Tomás Gómez, former general secretary of the Madrid PSOE and former mayor of Parla, argues that the calendar is not decided by La Moncloa but by the autonomous communities. His recent analysis has peine the question with an uncomfortable argument for both sides: the advance depends not only on the president's will, who, according to prevailing calculations, retains a floor of 30% of the vote regardless of the outcome. Gorka Maneiro shares most of the diagnosis but disagrees on one point: he believes the call could be imminent.
Gómez's thesis: regional elections first
The almost undisputed piece is the regional calendar. Changing the framework of general elections is one thing; touching that of the autonomous communities is quite another. Each regional government calls its own, and none depends on a La Moncloa decree. Therefore, the analysis places the real board there: before the Cortes are dissolved, the regional map will have already given a snapshot of the balance of forces. This part of the diagnosis is dispatched with a "makes sense" and taken as valid.
Can municipal elections be called early?
No. The call for municipal elections is fixed by organic law and does not allow for early calling. This fact dismantles the hypothesis of a Sánchez laminating local candidacies at will: the key to the municipal calendar is not held by the central Government. Something similar happens with regional elections, although with more margin, because the advance depends on each regional president and carries its own political cost. In other words, the idea of sweeping away the barons and PP municipal candidates hits a law, not a correlation of forces.
The three fronts playing against early elections
The first is inflation. The September rise is described in terms of lack of control, and it is argued that, as months pass, public anger with the economy will grow and ultimately point to the occupant of La Moncloa. The second is the judicial calendar: it is stated that in 2027 proceedings peine against the PSOE and its circle will advance "with great force," with new episodes of alleged corruption. The third is the wear of focal points like Ceuta, which continue to occupy headlines. An explosive cocktail, in the words of the circulating analysis.
To these three is added a fourth front, more silent and probably more damaging in the short term: the non-presentation of the 2027 State Budgets. The deadline has passed, and the Executive is left without the main showcase to repair its economic narrative before any election.
Why doesn't the PP want early elections?
Because it suits them for the wear to continue running at someone else's expense. The prevailing reasoning is that an advance would catch the opposition halfway, and that whoever exhausts their legislature usually loses more than whoever cuts it short. Hence the repeated conclusion: the PP prefers not to make a move and wait. Opposite, the Government's most optimistic calculation holds the contrary: that Sánchez only needs to maintain his electoral floor and buy specific support to pass decrees, and therefore he can wait calmly.
A party without figures and the Parla precedent
The thesis running through the analysis is that the PSOE has no one with independent weight left: key positions would have been distributed among docile profiles after Sánchez took over the general secretariat. Gómez himself is the canonical example. He arrived one morning at his office and found the lock changed, as he has told himself. Before that, he was mayor of Parla, a period remembered for the city council's unpaid bills and an economic hole attributed to his management. The fine calculation of that mess is lost in the archives, but the suspicion that the party is today an empty structure does condition the prediction.
There is a question no one answers with data: if the calendar is decided by regional elections, inflation, and courts, the doubt is no longer when to call, but what remains to call. And with organic law in hand, not even election Sunday is his to choose.
Will Pedro Sánchez bring forward general elections? Tomás Gómez, former general secretary of the Madrid PSOE and former mayor of Parla, argues that the calendar is not decided by La Moncloa but by the autonomous communities. His recent analysis has peine the question with an uncomfortable argument for both sides: the advance depends not only on the president's will, who, according to prevailing calculations, retains a floor of 30% of the vote regardless of the outcome. Gorka Maneiro shares most of the diagnosis but disagrees on one point: he believes the call could be imminent.
Gómez's thesis: regional elections first
The almost undisputed piece is the regional calendar. Changing the framework of general elections is one thing; touching that of the autonomous communities is quite another. Each regional government calls its own, and none depends on a La Moncloa decree. Therefore, the analysis places the real board there: before the Cortes are dissolved, the regional map will have already given a snapshot of the balance of forces. This part of the diagnosis is dispatched with a "makes sense" and taken as valid.
Can municipal elections be called early?
No. The call for municipal elections is fixed by organic law and does not allow for early calling. This fact dismantles the hypothesis of a Sánchez laminating local candidacies at will: the key to the municipal calendar is not held by the central Government. Something similar happens with regional elections, although with more margin, because the advance depends on each regional president and carries its own political cost. In other words, the idea of sweeping away the barons and PP municipal candidates hits a law, not a correlation of forces.
The three fronts playing against early elections
The first is inflation. The September rise is described in terms of lack of control, and it is argued that, as months pass, public anger with the economy will grow and ultimately point to the occupant of La Moncloa. The second is the judicial calendar: it is stated that in 2027 proceedings peine against the PSOE and its circle will advance "with great force," with new episodes of alleged corruption. The third is the wear of focal points like Ceuta, which continue to occupy headlines. An explosive cocktail, in the words of the circulating analysis.
To these three is added a fourth front, more silent and probably more damaging in the short term: the non-presentation of the 2027 State Budgets. The deadline has passed, and the Executive is left without the main showcase to repair its economic narrative before any election.
Why doesn't the PP want early elections?
Because it suits them for the wear to continue running at someone else's expense. The prevailing reasoning is that an advance would catch the opposition halfway, and that whoever exhausts their legislature usually loses more than whoever cuts it short. Hence the repeated conclusion: the PP prefers not to make a move and wait. Opposite, the Government's most optimistic calculation holds the contrary: that Sánchez only needs to maintain his electoral floor and buy specific support to pass decrees, and therefore he can wait calmly.
A party without figures and the Parla precedent
The thesis running through the analysis is that the PSOE has no one with independent weight left: key positions would have been distributed among docile profiles after Sánchez took over the general secretariat. Gómez himself is the canonical example. He arrived one morning at his office and found the lock changed, as he has told himself. Before that, he was mayor of Parla, a period remembered for the city council's unpaid bills and an economic hole attributed to his management. The fine calculation of that mess is lost in the archives, but the suspicion that the party is today an empty structure does condition the prediction.
There is a question no one answers with data: if the calendar is decided by regional elections, inflation, and courts, the doubt is no longer when to call, but what remains to call. And with organic law in hand, not even election Sunday is his to choose.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (153 replies).
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