The West's economic war: from Maidan to ruin

Russia, China and Iran have already won the economic war

The West has lost the war, even as its leaders keep denying it with the same energy they devote to signing new sanctions. The thesis circulating in the less official circles of economic analysis is as uncomfortable as it is forceful: the current conflict is not being decided on the battlefield, but in interest rates, supply chains, currency reserves and control of strategic resources. And on that board, the masterstroke was designed a decade ago at Maidan.

The origins must be traced back to 2014. Maidan Square was the scene of a regime change in Ukraine which, according to this reading, was orchestrated from Washington. Names such as Victoria Nuland and Robert Kagan appear as the architects of a strategy conceived to bring Russia to its knees without firing a single shot. The plan has gone wrong: Russia's response, its alliance with China and the energy standoff have turned the game against its promoters. Today, the very people who designed the board watch as Moscow, Beijing and Tehran consolidate their position while the United States and Europe bear the cost: inflation, capital flight and debt growing without limit.

Moreover, war is no longer what it used to be. There are no land invasions; the battle is fought on the economic front. The military-industrial complex, with multibillion-dollar contracts at stake, pushes the conflicts that guarantee its business. A decorated marine, Smedley Butler, warned of this a century ago: after winning all his medals, he became one of the harshest critics of militarism. History does not repeat itself, but the incentive structures remain intact.

The pessimism of these analyses is emphatic: neither the United States nor Israel will come out of this crisis well. The new order that emerges after 2030 will bear little resemblance to the one we know. The question that remains is whether Europe's leaders, who no longer defend even the interests of their own peoples, will react in time or keep playing short-term bets while the world burns.