The 'rigging' narrative: the 0.13% and uncounted official reports
The calculation of 0.13553% of seats being multiples of three has fueled four years of allegations of electoral fraud in Spain, without firm resolutions.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
From 28-A to 23-J: four years of suspected rigging
Six parties. Six election results whose seat counts, by chance or not, are multiples of three. The probability that this occurred randomly, according to the calculation circulated after the April 28, 2019 general election, is 0.13553%. To conclude that rigging occurred is only one step away, and thousands of people have taken it. The calculation circulates; the conclusion is an interpretation. And upon that distance, half a decade of distrust in the Spanish electoral system has been built.
The issue did not begin in 2019. It was dragged along by a previous suspicion regarding the company responsible for processing results and its alleged links to foreign interests. What peine on 28-A was giving a round number to the narrative.
What peine in the 28-A elections of 2019
After the count, Vox demanded a general review of all ballot boxes in Spain. Their argument was not about seat distribution but the existence of tens of thousands of declared null votes, with up to 40,000 ballots only in the Valencian Community. The party's legal services requested that the Central Electoral Board check the detected irregularities.
In parallel, videos and analyses began circulating claiming that the PSOE had won through manipulation; even a Venezuelan expert in electoral processes was blamed for predicting how the fraud would occur in Spain. That material never accompanied a judicial resolution proving foul play.
Indra, the reports that were not recounted, and the agents' allowances
The technical core of the controversy is different. Provincial electoral boards must recount the minutes from each municipality five days after the election. The argument is that, in practice, hundreds of private observers witnessed how these reports were not recounted and accepted the figures provided by the contracted technology company. The complaints, this version adds, are dismissed because only the parties themselves can file them.
The detail that repeats is that agents from all formations attend these boards and, according to this same version, receive allowances for doing so. All they expect is the company to tell them how many deputies it achieved. That is the accusation held by the bulk of the distrust, and not the arithmetic of multiples of three.
Transparent Elections and 'No Indra, No Tezanos'
After November 10, 2019, the platform Transparent Elections presented its first advances of an alternative recount. Its head, Ignacio Vargas, claimed that according to his data, the PSOE had not achieved more than 80 or 90 deputies. This was a parallel recount, without access to the original minutes from all polling stations, versus the official count.
The 23-J, Junts, and the 'data entry error'
With the July 2023 general election, the focus shifted from one party. Volunteers reported photographing electoral minutes in Valencia, and it was insisted that the parties did not truly monitor or audit the process. The anomaly most frequently reported, in different parts of the country, was the bias towards Junts: municipalities with votes deemed unlikely for that formation, and the feeling that the alleged margin of error always pointed in the same direction.
In Cantabria, one user cited this case.
For critics, the explanation was an error in data entry. This explanation, rather than closing the matter, fueled it: for them, it is the perfect alibi, the one that prevents anyone from being named and shamed.
The CERA vote, Galicia, and the Supreme Court
More recently, attention shifted to the foreign vote. It was questioned whether those who do not reside in Spain should decide regional elections—the Galician case was cited—and it was disseminated that the Supreme Court blocked the CERA vote, with the Executive branch pointing fingers at the judges. It is the same pattern: suspicion moves from one election to the next without ever being resolved.
Some calculations, broken down by polling station, have been circulating for years. Some maintain that the number of ballots photographed and compared is higher in certain municipalities than what appears in the public count. None of these checks has led to a cancellation of results. With these pieces on the table, several parties have requested that the ballot boxes be peine and every vote counted. What would need to happen so that, regardless of who wins, no one ever speaks of rigging again?
Six parties. Six election results whose seat counts, by chance or not, are multiples of three. The probability that this occurred randomly, according to the calculation circulated after the April 28, 2019 general election, is 0.13553%. To conclude that rigging occurred is only one step away, and thousands of people have taken it. The calculation circulates; the conclusion is an interpretation. And upon that distance, half a decade of distrust in the Spanish electoral system has been built.
The issue did not begin in 2019. It was dragged along by a previous suspicion regarding the company responsible for processing results and its alleged links to foreign interests. What peine on 28-A was giving a round number to the narrative.
What peine in the 28-A elections of 2019
After the count, Vox demanded a general review of all ballot boxes in Spain. Their argument was not about seat distribution but the existence of tens of thousands of declared null votes, with up to 40,000 ballots only in the Valencian Community. The party's legal services requested that the Central Electoral Board check the detected irregularities.
In parallel, videos and analyses began circulating claiming that the PSOE had won through manipulation; even a Venezuelan expert in electoral processes was blamed for predicting how the fraud would occur in Spain. That material never accompanied a judicial resolution proving foul play.
Indra, the reports that were not recounted, and the agents' allowances
The technical core of the controversy is different. Provincial electoral boards must recount the minutes from each municipality five days after the election. The argument is that, in practice, hundreds of private observers witnessed how these reports were not recounted and accepted the figures provided by the contracted technology company. The complaints, this version adds, are dismissed because only the parties themselves can file them.
The detail that repeats is that agents from all formations attend these boards and, according to this same version, receive allowances for doing so. All they expect is the company to tell them how many deputies it achieved. That is the accusation held by the bulk of the distrust, and not the arithmetic of multiples of three.
Transparent Elections and 'No Indra, No Tezanos'
After November 10, 2019, the platform Transparent Elections presented its first advances of an alternative recount. Its head, Ignacio Vargas, claimed that according to his data, the PSOE had not achieved more than 80 or 90 deputies. This was a parallel recount, without access to the original minutes from all polling stations, versus the official count.
The 23-J, Junts, and the 'data entry error'
With the July 2023 general election, the focus shifted from one party. Volunteers reported photographing electoral minutes in Valencia, and it was insisted that the parties did not truly monitor or audit the process. The anomaly most frequently reported, in different parts of the country, was the bias towards Junts: municipalities with votes deemed unlikely for that formation, and the feeling that the alleged margin of error always pointed in the same direction.
In Cantabria, one user cited this case.
For critics, the explanation was an error in data entry. This explanation, rather than closing the matter, fueled it: for them, it is the perfect alibi, the one that prevents anyone from being named and shamed.
The CERA vote, Galicia, and the Supreme Court
More recently, attention shifted to the foreign vote. It was questioned whether those who do not reside in Spain should decide regional elections—the Galician case was cited—and it was disseminated that the Supreme Court blocked the CERA vote, with the Executive branch pointing fingers at the judges. It is the same pattern: suspicion moves from one election to the next without ever being resolved.
Some calculations, broken down by polling station, have been circulating for years. Some maintain that the number of ballots photographed and compared is higher in certain municipalities than what appears in the public count. None of these checks has led to a cancellation of results. With these pieces on the table, several parties have requested that the ballot boxes be peine and every vote counted. What would need to happen so that, regardless of who wins, no one ever speaks of rigging again?
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (1502 replies).
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