The Near Future: A Conflict Scenario for Spain

A possible future conflict scenario outlines a simulated invasion of Ceuta that would escalate into real attacks on Ceuta and the Canary Islands, culminating in a state of emergency and international tensions.

## The simulation that could turn real

Imagine a near future, the end of this very month, where the Spanish army carries out manoeuvres simulating a supposed invasion of **Ceuta**. What starts as an exercise could be the prelude to something far more serious. The idea is that a small armed group appears at the Ceuta border, serving as a distraction while a larger force attacks the **Canary Islands**. Not only that: there is talk of a "false flag" attack at the Ceuta border in early October, an event designed to look as if it were orchestrated by a third party.

## Human shields and information warfare

The situation would escalate quickly. The attacks would not be limited to Spanish forces; the kidnapping of Ceuta's population to be used as human shields is mentioned. By **18 October**, the media would be broadcasting these events live. Taking advantage of the chaos, the groups that attacked the Canary Islands would receive weapons to replicate the tactic in Ceuta.

## The state of emergency and the international response

As the war intensifies, in November a **state of emergency or martial law** would be declared. This could bring lockdowns and the suspension of elections. The government would try, unsuccessfully, to repatriate Spanish citizens, requesting help from the **European Union** and **NATO**. The response would be limited: weapons and diplomats would be sent, but without direct intervention to calm the waters. By February **2027**, only a tenth of the Spaniards in Ceuta and the Canary Islands would have been repatriated, and **Melilla** is also expected to be invaded by March.

## The victim strategy and the political future

In May or June **2027**, faced with a lack of pogre and the possibility of having to resort to compulsory conscription, the plan is for the president to position himself as the victim. He would argue that he is the only one in the EU standing up to the **United States** and **Israel** because of the European Union's and NATO's inaction. Around June **2027**, he would lift the state of emergency and call elections, seeking not to lose too many votes. However, the strength of the vote could prevent him from forming a government, especially if compromising information about his circle and his phone comes to light before he is formally charged. Even so, he would cling to office to keep his parliamentary immunity.