The 'General Winter' Won't Save Ceuta: Minimum Temperatures of 11 Degrees

## Ceuta Won't Freeze: The Winter That Doesn't Halt Arrivals

In Ceuta, temperatures won't drop below 11 degrees Celsius. The high reaches 16. On paper, the winter that some hoped would serve as a natural barrier barely requires heating. The problem is that the thermometer doesn't measure the outdoors: on the beach, combined with marine humidity and wind gusts, the thermal sensation drops several degrees, and those spending the night exposed feel it.
This friction between the mercury and the body gives rise to an issue mixing climatology, migratory pressure, and emergency logistics.

The Reality of Temperatures in Ceuta During Winter

The records are stubborn. December ranges between 16 degrees high and 12 low; January, between 16 and 11; February repeats with highs of 16 and lows of 11 to 12. Some add that the city's climate is oceanic, with a range of 13 to 25 degrees throughout the year, closer to the Canary Islands than the plateau.

This disproves the initial hypothesis: there is no winter capable of emptying the beaches by itself. The issue becomes complex, however, when the thermal sensation comes into play. The sea humidity and wind gusts turn eleven degrees outdoors into something much harsher than the mercury suggests. Those who have worked night shifts by the coast know it: even in summer, you need more than a t-shirt. The thermometer says one thing; the body says another.

The Arrival Figures That Demand No Discussion

On the table is a fact that orders everything else: around 70,000 entries recorded, of which approximately 13,000 people would remain in the city according to official figures. Frontex reportedly accounted for about 10,000 irregular entries in 2024. The calculation that emerges is uncomfortable: the volume of an entire year would have been exceeded in just two days. With these margins, trusting that the cold will fix anything sounds optimistic. Seasonality does not absorb a peak of this magnitude, much less when the autonomous city controls neither the flow nor the calendar.

Blankets, Heaters, and Who Pays the Bill

The logistical response enters fully into the equation. Blankets, heaters, accommodation, and relocation for the rest of the territory are the items that reappear again and again. The Red Cross and aid organizations find themselves at the center of the scene: against the expectation that the cold will clear the coast, comes the counterattack of blankets, clothing, and shelter that won't shut down just because the temperature drops. The question that closes the circle is not meteorological, but accounting: what part of this cost remains in Ceuta and what part is passed on elsewhere. There is no agreement on the distribution of this bill, and that is where the matter truly heats up.

The Calendar That Matters

Where winter doesn't arrive, politics does. The most widespread reading is that the management of arrivals will ultimately weigh on the electoral cycle and the distribution of responsibilities among administrations. It's not about degrees; it's about who bears the wear and tear and how to explain a number that doesn't decrease.

With minimum temperatures of 11 degrees, without cold capable of clearing anything, and the reception machinery already deployed, what remains of winter as an argument? The thermometer, for now, does not intend to answer.