The electoral math behind Leuven's Muslim mayor
Leuven has a Muslim mayor and it is no accident: territorial concentration, bloc voting and a rudderless social democracy. London and New York already…
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Leuven, the laboratory of the Muslim vote in Europe
How does a Muslim candidate end up as mayor of Leuven, Belgium? The answer requires no apocalyptic epiphanies: just add territorial concentration to parties hungry for votes. The first factor is a community that votes as a bloc. The second is a left that has made identity multiculturalism its substitute for the class struggle. From that combination comes what was already seen in London and is emerging in New York: mayors who represent not the majority, but the best-organized minority.
European social democracy has been negotiating this trade-off for at least two decades. It abandoned its working-class base and found in the Muslim vote a cheap electoral substitute. Candidate lists filled up with people of the right profile, and now the party is living with the result. The Muslim voter is no fool: he votes for his own. And when his own are the decisive bloc, the party that courts them will win the mayor's office. The one who warns is no traitor; he is just an analyst who knows how to read an electoral roll.
Those who knew Leuven 20 years ago say it was all already written. More than an isolated case, it is a mirror of what may spread across central Europe in the coming decades. The final irony comes from the system itself: those who denounced racism most loudly are the ones who built the candidate lists to capture the community vote. Now they are uncomfortable that their words are being taken at face value.
How does a Muslim candidate end up as mayor of Leuven, Belgium? The answer requires no apocalyptic epiphanies: just add territorial concentration to parties hungry for votes. The first factor is a community that votes as a bloc. The second is a left that has made identity multiculturalism its substitute for the class struggle. From that combination comes what was already seen in London and is emerging in New York: mayors who represent not the majority, but the best-organized minority.
European social democracy has been negotiating this trade-off for at least two decades. It abandoned its working-class base and found in the Muslim vote a cheap electoral substitute. Candidate lists filled up with people of the right profile, and now the party is living with the result. The Muslim voter is no fool: he votes for his own. And when his own are the decisive bloc, the party that courts them will win the mayor's office. The one who warns is no traitor; he is just an analyst who knows how to read an electoral roll.
Those who knew Leuven 20 years ago say it was all already written. More than an isolated case, it is a mirror of what may spread across central Europe in the coming decades. The final irony comes from the system itself: those who denounced racism most loudly are the ones who built the candidate lists to capture the community vote. Now they are uncomfortable that their words are being taken at face value.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (12 replies).
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