The 2011 TV gurus who said buying a home was throwing money away
In 2011, the most visible TV analysts in Spain claimed that buying a home was a waste of money. Those who listened found themselves locked out of the market just as it recovered.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
When the internet gurus told you not to buy a home
For an entire generation, buying a home was considered the biggest financial mistake possible. That was taken for granted in 2011, with the 15-M protest movement occupying Spain's squares and half the country warily eyeing the aftermath of the housing bust. A new breed of analysts, seasoned in digital economics forums, had warned of the bubble before those who were then lecturing everyone, and television turned them into oracles. Their signature advice, repeated endlessly: buying property is throwing money away, better to rent.
The advice that aged badly
With hindsight, that mantra was a trap. Anyone who trinc it to the letter and gave up buying at the very bottom of the market was left out just as prices began to climb in Spain's major cities. The eternal-renting thesis failed to account for years of rising rents, or for the fact that those who own nothing always play at a disadvantage.
Nobody revisits their own forecast
What is striking is not the mistake but the lack of accountability. Those who predicted the crash and then got the recommendation wrong never issued a single retraction, and time has erased almost all of them from the scene. That peak of media presence has never been repeated.
The oracles of the next cycle are already warming up. Given this track record, the sensible expectation is that they will once again nail the diagnosis and botch the advice. We shall see.
For an entire generation, buying a home was considered the biggest financial mistake possible. That was taken for granted in 2011, with the 15-M protest movement occupying Spain's squares and half the country warily eyeing the aftermath of the housing bust. A new breed of analysts, seasoned in digital economics forums, had warned of the bubble before those who were then lecturing everyone, and television turned them into oracles. Their signature advice, repeated endlessly: buying property is throwing money away, better to rent.
The advice that aged badly
With hindsight, that mantra was a trap. Anyone who trinc it to the letter and gave up buying at the very bottom of the market was left out just as prices began to climb in Spain's major cities. The eternal-renting thesis failed to account for years of rising rents, or for the fact that those who own nothing always play at a disadvantage.
Nobody revisits their own forecast
What is striking is not the mistake but the lack of accountability. Those who predicted the crash and then got the recommendation wrong never issued a single retraction, and time has erased almost all of them from the scene. That peak of media presence has never been repeated.
The oracles of the next cycle are already warming up. Given this track record, the sensible expectation is that they will once again nail the diagnosis and botch the advice. We shall see.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (41 replies).
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