Tesla Model S mortality rate exceeds 2001 VW Passat

Tesla Model S has higher mortality than a 2001 Passat according to IIHS data

Four occupants, a Cybertruck, a collision that ends without major drama, and a subsequent fire that claims three lives; the fourth is rescued. This incident in California opens a more uncomfortable debate: if Tesla has spent years marketing safety as its main selling point, why do its cars fail to stand out when real deaths per million vehicles are counted? Mortality statistics from the IIHS (Insurance Institute for Highway Safety), the US body that requires a minimum sample size before publishing data by model, have finally included the brand in the comparison. The result does not support the advertising narrative.

What IIHS data reveals about Tesla mortality

In the mid-size luxury sedan segment, three models record lower mortality than the two-wheel-drive Tesla Model 3, which is the least lethal version of that model. These are the Mercedes C-Class, the Audi A4, and the Lexus ES, which achieves the antiestéticat of recording zero. The comparable figures, all in deaths per million units, leave an uncomfortable table:

• Lexus ES: 0
• 2001 VW Passat: 16
• Tesla Model S 4WD: 17

The second paradox arises when comparing the two Teslas against each other. The Tesla Model S is five meters long, weighs 600 kg more than the Passat, and belongs to a higher segment. However, its mortality rate is worse than that of the Model 3, which is smaller and cheaper. A 2001 mainstream car, twenty years old, outperforms it by one point.

Where is the Autopilot safety advantage?

This is the question that runs through the entire comparison. For a decade, robotaxis, ultra-safe cars, and a revolution in assisted driving have been promised—claims that partially supported the company's stock valuation. The data, instead, places models without any kind of advanced assistance ahead of Teslas. The Lexus ES does not boast autonomous driving and records zero deaths.

A technical gap is also added to the mix. Tesla's flagship system operates at Level 2 automated driving, while Mercedes' Drive Pilot reaches Level 3. The explanation provided is regulatory: European certifications are designed based on the number of sensors, and Tesla's strategy has been to rely entirely on computer vision. In parallel, the two-seater robotaxi presented has been read more as an exercise to boost the share price than as a real product.

Why all-wheel drive is not always safer

In theory, all-wheel drive should provide more grip and safety. In practice, the 4WD version of the Tesla Model 3 is more lethal than the two-wheel-drive version. The argument defended is that all-wheel drive ends up encouraging a certain driver profile to drive faster, and that these drivers would have died the same or sooner in a two-wheel-drive car.

The objection is as reasonable as the previous one: those who buy a 4WD usually live in mountainous areas, drive in snow, or move on secondary roads, so the sample does not compare identical drivers. "Perhaps the reason a 4x4 has more accidents than a two-wheel-drive car is that those who buy them drive on worse roads or in worse weather conditions," summarizes one participant. On the other end is the argument of electronic stability control: some use it daily, while others have seen it activate only twice in fifteen years and 300,000 kilometers.

Lexus ES from €53,000 vs Tesla Model S from €95,970

Both are around five meters in length. The Lexus ES starts at €53,000 and records zero deaths per million. The Tesla Model S starts at €95,970 and has a clearly higher mortality rate. For the price of a Tesla Model S, one could buy several 2001 Passats, which is exactly the car that outperforms it in the data. This comparison of price versus results is what causes the most discomfort in the conversation.

Ergonomics and reliability: other open fronts

There is a complementary explanation that does not involve structure or software: ergonomics. It is argued that control usability has worsened in twenty years and that Tesla is among the worst brands in this regard.

Added to this is the reliability ranking from Autobild, which places Tesla as the bottom brand, and the plunge in stock value, with a 41% drop in the year and trading at 2020 levels. Furthermore, sales have fallen for the first time.

There are fundamental objections to the whole picture. That the Tesla Model 3 is not an unsafe car in crash tests, where Euro NCAP gives it good results; that the instant acceleration of the electric motor, with single-pedal driving, invites a type of use that punishes those who haven't mastered it; and that modern power outputs are absurdly high. "I have an MX-5 ND, the small 132 hp one. I used to have a Golf GTI with over 200. Well, if I have to choose between one and the other, I don't have even a hint of a doubt," summarizes a driver who tested the Tesla Model 3 Performance and was surprised by how the power is delivered.

The full breakdown of models, versions, and mortality figures allows for a one-by-one comparison of every Tesla with each rival.


The average car fleet sold in the United States has had a lower mortality rate since 2006 than the 2023 all-wheel-drive Tesla Model 3. A seventeen-year-old car, without any assistance, circulates with less measured risk than the model presented as the future. And a €1,000 Passat still outperforms the Tesla Model S.