Systemic Crash Warning: OTC Derivatives Hit $846 Trillion
OTC derivatives reached $846 trillion in June 2025. Forum users debate a potential two-wave financial collapse.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
The Coming Crash: Two Waves and $365 Trillion Global Debt
A systemic collapse is not just talk; it is a thesis with dates, figures, and mechanics defended by forum users for months. The argument posits an initial crash wave trinc by another, amidst a financial system buckling under its own debt. This discussion, which started as a roadmap post and now has 270 replies, highlights a staggering figure: the nominal value of outstanding over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives reached $846 billion in June 2025, up 16% year-on-year, according to the user. The gross market value of these derivatives rose 29% annually to $21.8 trillion.
The central thesis is that the system broke in 2008 and has only bought time through zero interest rates, central bank bond purchases, and cheap credit. Global debt, already unsustainable, jumped from $317 trillion to $365 trillion in just 18 months without a pandemic justification, the user claims. The result is described as a house of cards where any sharp move in bonds could trigger margin calls and a chain reaction.
Why Gold and Oil Are the Real Thermometers
Debt alone explains nothing. Fiat money rests solely on confidence, measured in gold ounces. When an ounce trades at $4,500, the message is not that gold is expensive, but that the dollar has lost significant value, according to the user. Proponents argue public debt is never repaid but diluted by inflation, leaving citizens to pay with their purchasing power.
Energy is the other elephant in the room. The end of cheap oil, with reserve replacement rates at lows and exploration stalled since 2016, pressures all prices, several participants note. Central banks can print money, but not oil or copper. The coming inflation is physical, not just monetary. When energy prices rise, everything else trinc.
The Silent Run on Private Funds
While attention focuses on AI and tech stocks, a less visible but more dangerous movement occurs: private equity and private debt funds, holding over €13 trillion in assets, are restricting withdrawals, the user states. BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo, and Morgan Stanley have closed doors to mass redemptions. This is a classic signal of internal breakage.
The AI sector, with CoreWeave as a wounded bastion, shows cracks. South Korea's KOSPI index fell 6% in one session and has been crashing since June. Circular financing in tech echoes the dot-com era.
Voices Rejecting the Collapse Narrative
Not everyone buys the script. Some argue states never repay debts, only refinance them, and inflation is the mechanism to liquefy them. Others claim the system has shown immense resilience and major players coordinate to avoid disaster. The uncomfortable question: if a crash were inevitable and dated, why not short it and get rich?
The most common answer is that the system does not collapse due to technical failure, but resource exhaustion and loss of confidence. That cannot be fixed with a Fed swap.
If there is consensus, it is that something big is brewing. Disagreement lies in the when and how. Meanwhile, gold rises, oil tightens, and private funds close doors. It is not a prediction, but a pattern repeating whenever debt grows faster than the real economy.
A systemic collapse is not just talk; it is a thesis with dates, figures, and mechanics defended by forum users for months. The argument posits an initial crash wave trinc by another, amidst a financial system buckling under its own debt. This discussion, which started as a roadmap post and now has 270 replies, highlights a staggering figure: the nominal value of outstanding over-the-counter (OTC) derivatives reached $846 billion in June 2025, up 16% year-on-year, according to the user. The gross market value of these derivatives rose 29% annually to $21.8 trillion.
The central thesis is that the system broke in 2008 and has only bought time through zero interest rates, central bank bond purchases, and cheap credit. Global debt, already unsustainable, jumped from $317 trillion to $365 trillion in just 18 months without a pandemic justification, the user claims. The result is described as a house of cards where any sharp move in bonds could trigger margin calls and a chain reaction.
Why Gold and Oil Are the Real Thermometers
Debt alone explains nothing. Fiat money rests solely on confidence, measured in gold ounces. When an ounce trades at $4,500, the message is not that gold is expensive, but that the dollar has lost significant value, according to the user. Proponents argue public debt is never repaid but diluted by inflation, leaving citizens to pay with their purchasing power.
Energy is the other elephant in the room. The end of cheap oil, with reserve replacement rates at lows and exploration stalled since 2016, pressures all prices, several participants note. Central banks can print money, but not oil or copper. The coming inflation is physical, not just monetary. When energy prices rise, everything else trinc.
The Silent Run on Private Funds
While attention focuses on AI and tech stocks, a less visible but more dangerous movement occurs: private equity and private debt funds, holding over €13 trillion in assets, are restricting withdrawals, the user states. BlackRock, Blackstone, Apollo, and Morgan Stanley have closed doors to mass redemptions. This is a classic signal of internal breakage.
The AI sector, with CoreWeave as a wounded bastion, shows cracks. South Korea's KOSPI index fell 6% in one session and has been crashing since June. Circular financing in tech echoes the dot-com era.
Voices Rejecting the Collapse Narrative
Not everyone buys the script. Some argue states never repay debts, only refinance them, and inflation is the mechanism to liquefy them. Others claim the system has shown immense resilience and major players coordinate to avoid disaster. The uncomfortable question: if a crash were inevitable and dated, why not short it and get rich?
The most common answer is that the system does not collapse due to technical failure, but resource exhaustion and loss of confidence. That cannot be fixed with a Fed swap.
If there is consensus, it is that something big is brewing. Disagreement lies in the when and how. Meanwhile, gold rises, oil tightens, and private funds close doors. It is not a prediction, but a pattern repeating whenever debt grows faster than the real economy.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (280 replies).
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