Sunflower Oil and Flour: Spanish Hospitality Rationing Orders

Sunflower oil and flour: hospitality is already rationing orders

Spain produces its own olive oil. It doesn't matter: what is already being rationed is sunflower oil. Barely a week after the start of the conflict in Ukraine, a chain of restaurants serving daily menus began to receive notices from its supplier: restrictions on sunflower oil and flour and a maximum quantity limit per order. The notice, passed on by an office worker, added two inconvenient details: flour keeps in storage, oil not so much, and what's coming next on the list is olive oil and macaroni.

Supply restrictions without declared shortages

There are no empty shelves or rationing signs. What there is is a supplier limiting how much they serve to each customer, which is the quietest way to manage a problem. In a daily food chain, that limit translates quickly: if the order is cut, the fryer changes oil or the menu changes its side dish.

The reasonable doubt remains, and it's worth bringing it up. Notices like this circulated during the pandemic, with toilet paper and with preventive stockpiling that never materialized. The credibility of a forwarded message is not given by the message itself: it is given by the data accompanying it. And here, data is as scarce as sunflower oil.

Reserves until April and the knock-on effect on olive oil

The most circulated calculation places reserves of corn and sunflower oil only until April. It's an estimate, not an official report, but it sets the tone: almost no one disputes that sunflower oil will become more expensive; the debate is about how much.

The blind spot is the substitute. Olive oil is produced here, so raw material shouldn't be lacking. Another matter is the price: if sunflower oil disappears from the shelves and consumption shifts to olive oil, that market ceases to be elastic and demand eats into the margin. Some point directly to a liter of olive oil at 10 euros. It's not an official price, it's the scenario with which people decide whether to buy today or wait.

Fertilizers, diesel, and electricity: the problem before the shortage

Here's the least discussed and probably most serious argument. Before products run out, some stop planting them. The increased cost of diesel, fertilizers, and electricity runs through the entire chain, from the field to the last supermarket shelf, and some farmers are already considering not planting this season.

The second effect is indirect and comes through feed. Most grain is not for human consumption, but for livestock: if feed prices rise, meat, eggs, and milk will go up. No one will starve because of this, most maintain. Eating meat daily as a main course, however, is starting to be the first luxury to be cut.

The case of rapeseed oil and the cursed word

Amidst so much alarm, the classic alternative reappears: rapeseed oil. Some argue that it is comparable to olive oil in healthiness, cheap, and available. Against it weighs the memory—the name carries the burden of a historical poisoning in Spain—and the technical argument: the traditional variety contains erucic acid and glucosinolates, while canola, derived from modified seeds, reduces these concentrations. Several voices are calling for it to be marketed here under that name, which half the world already uses, and to stop fighting over the label.

Air fryer, stew, and bikini operation

The most realistic adjustment is not hunger, but the menu. Air fryer instead of a pan, rice instead of pasta, stew and shredded beef instead of pre-cooked meals. The Mediterranean diet without excess flour returns as a plan B, half jokingly, half seriously: without flour or oil, this is going to be a bikini operation.

The uncomfortable question is another. If the supplier limits orders today and reserves run out in April, in which exact month does a supplier's limit become an empty shelf?