SUMAR poll projects 26 seats for SUMAR and 4 for Podemos, with Feijóo leading by 8 points
A poll places SUMAR at 26 seats and Podemos at 4, with Feijóo leading by nearly 8 points, sparking distrust in the left-wing space.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
SUMAR poll projects 26 seats for SUMAR and 4 for Podemos, a forecast nobody believes
A poll released during the 23J pre-campaign places SUMAR at 26 seats and Podemos at 4. The reaction has been swift: from those who see these figures as a gift to those who suspect manipulation. The key data is that, according to this same poll, Feijóo’s lead over Pedro Sánchez widens to nearly 8 points trinc the electoral advance. With this starting point, the debate over the space to the left of the PSOE has become a settling of scores.
The forecast nobody trusts
The poll awards SUMAR 26 seats and Podemos 4. For many, these figures do not withstand analysis. "This poll is more manipulated than Tezanos’s," summarizes one of the first reactions. Distrust knows no party labels: some believe SUMAR gets too many seats, while others think Podemos gets too few. The 30-seat gap between the two parties, running separately, is for some proof that the left-wing electorate is completely demobilized.
The comparison with the 2019 results appears early. Podemos, Compromís, and En Marea then totaled 15% of the vote, about 4 million. With that reference, 9.8% for SUMAR and 4.9% for Podemos seems optimistic. "They will hover around 9.8% running together," argues an analysis circulating in the debate. The electoral law, they recall, harshly punishes vote fragmentation.
How many militants are needed to run?
To contest general elections, a party needs 350 candidates distributed across Spain. The question is whether Podemos has them. "I have my doubts that so many militants remain in that party," notes an intervention. This is no minor doubt: without candidacies in all constituencies, the electoral floor collapses. And with 4 seats, representation is reduced to the bare minimum.
The discussion about how many deputies current leaders need to save mixes with territorial calculation. In Madrid, for example, some do not see Irene Montero winning a seat at all. "I don’t believe Irene Montero will win a deputy seat in Madrid," stated without nuance. These are rough calculations, but they reflect a widespread perception: the space occupied by Podemos has narrowed to almost disappearance.
The strategy of brands that burn out
The parallel with other formations has been a central axis of the debate. "It’s the same strategy used by Herri Batasuna. When one brand burned, they launched another," states a recurring comparison. The underlying idea is that SUMAR is merely a change of wrapping for the same electorate. "Podemos transforms into SUMAR. When SUMAR voters realize the new scam, we create another party called Multiplicar and start over," jokes another message.
This thesis of recycled labels coexists with the thesis of vote transfer. "All left-wing vote, or most of it, will go to the PSOE because it is the only solid party at this time," is argued. The PSOE, according to this reading, would absorb the useful vote and relegate SUMAR and Podemos to a residual role. The poll, giving the PSOE 27-28%, fuels this interpretation.
The wear not measured in seats
Beyond the numbers, the debate has shifted toward the wear on leaders. "I want derroidoque and the cashier to stay and finish their work. To completely finish sinking the guano," summarizes an intervention mixing the wish for disappearance with consuming the disaster. The figures of Irene Montero and Yolanda Díaz appear repeatedly, with nicknames and without.
The discussion on whether Podemos will disappear or transform has an almost unanimous answer: the brand may die, but the philosophy remains. "Podemos will die. The bad thing is that the pogre philosophy will remain alive," sentences one message. And another adds: "The bad thing is that the trash laws from that rabble won’t be repealed by the blue PSOE or any other." The lament is not for the party, but for what it leaves behind.
The context nobody disputes
The poll that started all this is not an isolated exercise. It is part of the string of polls accompanying the electoral advance. Feijóo’s lead widens to nearly 8 points, conditioning any reading. With this scenario, the fight for the space to the left of the PSOE takes place in terrain narrowing by the moment.
Some see these figures as an attempt to mobilize left-wing voters. "It’s Doctor Embeleco’s plan, consolidating left-wing vote in the PSOE to avoid the punch or even win," is stated. Others, however, believe the poll simply confirms an uncomfortable reality: fragmentation takes its toll. Between these two readings, one certainty: 23J will measure to what extent the left-wing electorate is willing to sustain two brands where there was once one.
What none of the interpretations close is the electoral floor. If Podemos stays at 4 seats and SUMAR at 26, the sum remains insufficient to condition anything. And if voters from both parties do not move, the result will be the same as the poll anticipates. The analysis stalls right there: in the arithmetic of a left that cannot find a way to not subtract from itself.
A poll released during the 23J pre-campaign places SUMAR at 26 seats and Podemos at 4. The reaction has been swift: from those who see these figures as a gift to those who suspect manipulation. The key data is that, according to this same poll, Feijóo’s lead over Pedro Sánchez widens to nearly 8 points trinc the electoral advance. With this starting point, the debate over the space to the left of the PSOE has become a settling of scores.
The forecast nobody trusts
The poll awards SUMAR 26 seats and Podemos 4. For many, these figures do not withstand analysis. "This poll is more manipulated than Tezanos’s," summarizes one of the first reactions. Distrust knows no party labels: some believe SUMAR gets too many seats, while others think Podemos gets too few. The 30-seat gap between the two parties, running separately, is for some proof that the left-wing electorate is completely demobilized.
The comparison with the 2019 results appears early. Podemos, Compromís, and En Marea then totaled 15% of the vote, about 4 million. With that reference, 9.8% for SUMAR and 4.9% for Podemos seems optimistic. "They will hover around 9.8% running together," argues an analysis circulating in the debate. The electoral law, they recall, harshly punishes vote fragmentation.
How many militants are needed to run?
To contest general elections, a party needs 350 candidates distributed across Spain. The question is whether Podemos has them. "I have my doubts that so many militants remain in that party," notes an intervention. This is no minor doubt: without candidacies in all constituencies, the electoral floor collapses. And with 4 seats, representation is reduced to the bare minimum.
The discussion about how many deputies current leaders need to save mixes with territorial calculation. In Madrid, for example, some do not see Irene Montero winning a seat at all. "I don’t believe Irene Montero will win a deputy seat in Madrid," stated without nuance. These are rough calculations, but they reflect a widespread perception: the space occupied by Podemos has narrowed to almost disappearance.
The strategy of brands that burn out
The parallel with other formations has been a central axis of the debate. "It’s the same strategy used by Herri Batasuna. When one brand burned, they launched another," states a recurring comparison. The underlying idea is that SUMAR is merely a change of wrapping for the same electorate. "Podemos transforms into SUMAR. When SUMAR voters realize the new scam, we create another party called Multiplicar and start over," jokes another message.
This thesis of recycled labels coexists with the thesis of vote transfer. "All left-wing vote, or most of it, will go to the PSOE because it is the only solid party at this time," is argued. The PSOE, according to this reading, would absorb the useful vote and relegate SUMAR and Podemos to a residual role. The poll, giving the PSOE 27-28%, fuels this interpretation.
The wear not measured in seats
Beyond the numbers, the debate has shifted toward the wear on leaders. "I want derroidoque and the cashier to stay and finish their work. To completely finish sinking the guano," summarizes an intervention mixing the wish for disappearance with consuming the disaster. The figures of Irene Montero and Yolanda Díaz appear repeatedly, with nicknames and without.
The discussion on whether Podemos will disappear or transform has an almost unanimous answer: the brand may die, but the philosophy remains. "Podemos will die. The bad thing is that the pogre philosophy will remain alive," sentences one message. And another adds: "The bad thing is that the trash laws from that rabble won’t be repealed by the blue PSOE or any other." The lament is not for the party, but for what it leaves behind.
The context nobody disputes
The poll that started all this is not an isolated exercise. It is part of the string of polls accompanying the electoral advance. Feijóo’s lead widens to nearly 8 points, conditioning any reading. With this scenario, the fight for the space to the left of the PSOE takes place in terrain narrowing by the moment.
Some see these figures as an attempt to mobilize left-wing voters. "It’s Doctor Embeleco’s plan, consolidating left-wing vote in the PSOE to avoid the punch or even win," is stated. Others, however, believe the poll simply confirms an uncomfortable reality: fragmentation takes its toll. Between these two readings, one certainty: 23J will measure to what extent the left-wing electorate is willing to sustain two brands where there was once one.
What none of the interpretations close is the electoral floor. If Podemos stays at 4 seats and SUMAR at 26, the sum remains insufficient to condition anything. And if voters from both parties do not move, the result will be the same as the poll anticipates. The analysis stalls right there: in the arithmetic of a left that cannot find a way to not subtract from itself.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (139 replies).
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