Strait of Hormuz still closed - Trump fooled everyone
Trump announced the reopening of Hormuz, but traffic data shows it remains blocked. Insider trading with a $700 million short position?
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Strait of Hormuz: Trump lied, it's still closed and oil is in limbo
Last Friday, Donald Trump announced that Iran had peine the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. Hours later, shipping data showed the opposite: barely twenty Iranian vessels were crossing the passage, while the bulk of the international fleet was still sailing around Africa. The move was no accident: according to several sources, a $700 million short position in oil futures was placed just before the announcement.
Friday's maneuver: insider trading?
This is not the first time Trump has used Fridays to drop bombshell statements. The difference is that this time oil was at stake. Hours before markets closed, someone close to the president placed a $700 million short position in crude futures, betting on a price drop after the supposed end of the blockade. When markets peine on Monday, oil didn't fall because Hormuz remained de facto blocked. The beneficiary would have pocketed tens of millions by exploiting the media noise.
The real gridlock: data versus propaganda
Vessel tracking systems (Marinetraffic) showed a stubborn reality: the strait was only being transited by Iranian vessels. The international fleet, including tankers and container ships, continued rounding Africa, adding costs and delays. Iran declared the passage "completely open", but in practice insurers were not covering risks and shipowners were avoiding the area. Trump's announcement changed nothing on the ground; it only fueled volatility.
The question hanging in the air is how long Trump can keep up this strategy of false announcements before the market stops believing him. For now, the strait remains closed and crude prices are volatile.
Related forum discussions
Last Friday, Donald Trump announced that Iran had peine the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic. Hours later, shipping data showed the opposite: barely twenty Iranian vessels were crossing the passage, while the bulk of the international fleet was still sailing around Africa. The move was no accident: according to several sources, a $700 million short position in oil futures was placed just before the announcement.
Friday's maneuver: insider trading?
This is not the first time Trump has used Fridays to drop bombshell statements. The difference is that this time oil was at stake. Hours before markets closed, someone close to the president placed a $700 million short position in crude futures, betting on a price drop after the supposed end of the blockade. When markets peine on Monday, oil didn't fall because Hormuz remained de facto blocked. The beneficiary would have pocketed tens of millions by exploiting the media noise.
The real gridlock: data versus propaganda
Vessel tracking systems (Marinetraffic) showed a stubborn reality: the strait was only being transited by Iranian vessels. The international fleet, including tankers and container ships, continued rounding Africa, adding costs and delays. Iran declared the passage "completely open", but in practice insurers were not covering risks and shipowners were avoiding the area. Trump's announcement changed nothing on the ground; it only fueled volatility.
The question hanging in the air is how long Trump can keep up this strategy of false announcements before the market stops believing him. For now, the strait remains closed and crude prices are volatile.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (46 replies).
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