Spain's Supreme Court sentences Ábalos to 24 years, Koldo to 19 and Aldama to 4.5

24 years for Ábalos, 19 for Koldo and 4.5 for Aldama: the Supreme Court dismantles the official narrative

The paradox is that three such different sentences point to the same core of the scheme. Spain's Supreme Court has imposed 24 years in prison on former minister José Luis Ábalos, 19 on his former aide Koldo García, and 4.5 years on businessman Víctor de Aldama. Far from closing the case, the sentences open a new phase: all three defendants still face several pending trials, and the suspicion hangs in the air that the convictions are not the end, but the prologue to a large-scale confession.

The conviction that convinces no one

The tiering of the sentences reveals the hierarchy of responsibility the court sought to establish. Ábalos, as the leading figure, takes the largest share. Koldo, his trusted man, lands at a considerable distance. Aldama, the business middleman, comes off comparatively lightly with under five years. But in the debate trinc the ruling, a sceptical current emerges: "Give the biggest one a talking-to, reduce his sentence, let him off a few little things, and then he heads off with the money to the Dominican Republic." The idea that a deal with the justice system — if one exists — could turn the conviction into a dead letter runs through the reactions.

Will they sing or stay silent? The trials to come

"Now's when Ábalos and Koldo start singing," notes one analysis that already anticipates a flood of revelations. Others, however, warn that silence has been the rule so far and that external threats — "they shot at his car", in reference to Aldama — do not encourage cooperation. What is a fact is that the judicial machinery has several fronts open: the former minister and his circle face additional proceedings for corruption, money laundering and incivil organisation. The strategy of the defence and the prosecution will determine whether this is a new chapter or the final full stop.

The calculation that "a few pardons and that's that" may be too optimistic. In a democracy where the leadership of the PSOE (Spain's Socialist Party) has been splashed by the case — some already compare the party to "the Camorra" — the judicial outcome will have political consequences that go beyond the cells of Soto del Real. The question remains hanging in the air: what do the convicted know that they have not yet told?