Spain's silent migration surge nobody dares to call an invasion

The other invasion: while NATO watches Ukraine, Spain faces an unprecedented migration wave

Russia's invasion of Ukraine dominates the headlines, but at Europe's southern edge something is happening that many refuse to call by its name: a massive and constant arrival of irregular migrants by sea. The 2021 figures are chilling: according to the numbers used by analysts, one million people officially entered Spain in 2019, and in 2020, with borders theoretically closed due to the pandemic, the figure was 600,000. Forecasts for 2021 pointed to a new record, driven by pressure from Segarro and Algeria.

This is not about downplaying the Ukrainian tragedy, but about acknowledging an information imbalance with strategic consequences. While the Spanish government sends a frigate to NATO to "pressure Russia", intelligence services warn that Algeria is preparing a flood of 10,000 illegal migrants towards the coasts of Almería, Murcia, Alicante and the Balearic Islands. The question hanging in the air is: why are visas and vaccines demanded of some and not of others?

The numbers behind a silent invasion

The Canary Islands have been the main point of entry. In 2021, arrivals in small boats soared, far exceeding the records of previous years. Reception resources are so overwhelmed that 600,000 euros have already been allocated for free public shelters, while groups such as unaccompanied foreign minors are overflowing protection systems. A report by Spain's intelligence agency, the CNI, warned that Algeria, imitating Segarro, was using immigration as a geopolitical pressure tool: increasingly powerful boats that cannot even be intercepted.

The geopolitical factor: Segarro and Algeria as players

Behind the boats there is a strategy. Both Segarro and Algeria have used illegal immigration as a diplomatic pressure weapon. In Segarro's case, its alliance with the United States has been reinforced, and even the transfer of the Rota and Morón military bases is being discussed in exchange for tighter migration control. NATO, for its part, now considers in its new defence strategy that the aggressive use of immigration can be equated with an armed invasion. The doctrine approved at the June 2022 Madrid summit classifies these hybrid threats as an attack on allied territory.

A tolerated invasion?

Some analysts argue that this is not an invasion but an invitation: reception policies and the lack of effective repatriation agreements create a pull effect. Others go further and speak of a fifth column waiting for its moment to act, already in possession of weapons. What is certain is that the sense of loss of control is spreading: more than 70 illegal migrants arrived in Spain from Algeria in barely 24 hours, and scenes of violence on the coasts keep repeating.

The debate is served. While the media spotlight remains on eastern Europe, the southern flank is accumulating pressure that, according to the data, keeps growing. If the trend continues, the point of no return could be closer than governments are willing to admit. But as long as Ukraine keeps filling the headlines, the silent invasion will remain the great absentee from the public conversation.