Spain's PP and the Ayuso dilemma: the asset it won't play
A forum user estimates that with Ayuso as candidate the PP would rise from 130 to 170 seats while Vox would fall from 70 to 30. Others believe she would not win outside Madrid.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Spain's PP and the Ayuso dilemma: the asset it won't play
There is a scene that repeats itself at every gathering of Spain's Partido Popular (conservative party): the President of the Community of Madrid walks in, and the room turns around. It peine at the Salamanca congress, where, according to those who were there, the queue to have a photo taken with her far outshone any interest in other party leaders. That is the starting point of a debate that has been circulating for months in economic and political gossip circles: if the PP dared to play that card in a general election, what would the result be? According to the most widespread consensus, it would probably win. And that, precisely, is why it won't.
The calculation that scares Génova
The numbers used by the analysts most optimistic about Isabel Díaz Ayuso as a candidate paint a scenario that, on paper, should make anyone with electoral ambitions tremble. The most frequently cited estimate gives the PP around 170 seats, compared with the 130 it would win with its current candidate, Alberto Núñez Feijóo. The PSOE (Socialist party) would stay at 105 in both scenarios. The real difference lies with Vox: with Feijóo it would keep around 70 seats; with Ayuso it would drop to 30. In other words, the Madrid premier would not only broaden the PP's base, she would literally eat up its necessary partner.
That transfer of votes has an explanation that goes beyond geography. Some argue that Ayuso would connect with an electorate that currently shelters in Vox for lack of alternatives, and that her profile —more combative, more media-savvy— would mobilise a right that today stays at home. Against her weighs an argument that the PP's own strategists repeat: outside Madrid, her public image is associated with confrontation and a style that does not always fit in the provinces, where elections are won in the centre. The question, then, is not whether she would win, but whether the party is willing to bear the internal cost of switching to her.
Madrid as a stronghold and as a trap
The Community of Madrid is, today, the PP's main electoral asset. It governs there comfortably, and there its president has built a narrative of her own that has earned her both praise and abuse. During the pandemic, her handling of healthcare was harshly criticised by the opposition, but also defended by voices that valued her resistance to the strictest lockdowns. That episode, which some see as a burden and others as a medal, still comes up in any conversation about her hypothetical national projection.
The problem is that moving Ayuso out of Madrid would open a succession battle in the region. Who would replace her? Would that person be able to keep the current majority? The cautious answer is that there are no guarantees. And losing Madrid would be, for the PP, a blow hard to swallow. Hence the option most often chosen by those analysing the board is to touch nothing: a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Feijóo, the candidate who fails to inspire
Faced with that dilemma, Feijóo generates an unusually broad consensus among critics of every stripe: he does not excite. He is credited with management experience and an absence of corruption cases, but blamed for a lack of charisma and a tendency not to take risks. The most repeated line is that the PP does not seem in a hurry to govern, that it lives comfortably in opposition, and that the current leader does not convey the urgency many voters expect.
That perception has practical consequences. Some argue that the PP, with Feijóo, is not really competing to win, but to maintain a position of strength that lets it keep influencing events without bearing the costs of governing. If that thesis were true, the calculation would be cold: let the PSOE wear itself out, keep Madrid as a bastion, and wait for better times. The risk, of course, is that attrition also catches up with those who do nothing.
The Vox factor and parliamentary arithmetic
The relationship with Vox is another of the threads running through this debate. With Feijóo, the PP would need Vox to govern, forcing it to manage an uncomfortable dependency. With Ayuso, that dependency would all but disappear, but in exchange a flank would open on the right that could undermine a centrist message. It is no minor dilemma: in politics, depending on a partner who can condition your agenda is one thing; depending on no one and still needing occasional deals is another.
Some analyses suggest that the PP's real goal is not so much winning as placing as many public officials as possible, and that this goal is met just as well in opposition as in government. If that were the case, immobility would have an economic logic: less wear and tear, same salaries, less responsibility. The question is whether that strategy is sustainable when voters begin to feel that their vote changes nothing.
What would happen if Ayuso jumped to national politics?
If the Madrid premier jumped into a general election, the most repeated scenario is a broad PP victory absorbing much of the Vox vote. That would give her a strong position in any subsequent negotiation, but it would also expose her to media wear and tear that she has so far managed from a regional trench. Her record of clashes with the central government and with critical media would be, at once, her main asset and her biggest risk.
The other unknown is the calendar. Any such move would take time, and time, in politics, is a scarce commodity. If the PP decides to keep Feijóo, the chance to play the Ayuso card might not come around again for years. If it decides to replace him, it will have to explain why the candidate it considers valid today stops being so. In either case, the decision is not technical but political.
In the end, the question hovering over this whole debate is not whether Ayuso would win, but why a party that boasts of holding Spain's best electoral asset prefers not to use it. The most common answer is that life in Madrid is very comfortable, and that from there one can afford to wait. The unsettling fact is that, with those numbers, the wait could cost the PP more than it is willing to admit.
There is a scene that repeats itself at every gathering of Spain's Partido Popular (conservative party): the President of the Community of Madrid walks in, and the room turns around. It peine at the Salamanca congress, where, according to those who were there, the queue to have a photo taken with her far outshone any interest in other party leaders. That is the starting point of a debate that has been circulating for months in economic and political gossip circles: if the PP dared to play that card in a general election, what would the result be? According to the most widespread consensus, it would probably win. And that, precisely, is why it won't.
The calculation that scares Génova
The numbers used by the analysts most optimistic about Isabel Díaz Ayuso as a candidate paint a scenario that, on paper, should make anyone with electoral ambitions tremble. The most frequently cited estimate gives the PP around 170 seats, compared with the 130 it would win with its current candidate, Alberto Núñez Feijóo. The PSOE (Socialist party) would stay at 105 in both scenarios. The real difference lies with Vox: with Feijóo it would keep around 70 seats; with Ayuso it would drop to 30. In other words, the Madrid premier would not only broaden the PP's base, she would literally eat up its necessary partner.
That transfer of votes has an explanation that goes beyond geography. Some argue that Ayuso would connect with an electorate that currently shelters in Vox for lack of alternatives, and that her profile —more combative, more media-savvy— would mobilise a right that today stays at home. Against her weighs an argument that the PP's own strategists repeat: outside Madrid, her public image is associated with confrontation and a style that does not always fit in the provinces, where elections are won in the centre. The question, then, is not whether she would win, but whether the party is willing to bear the internal cost of switching to her.
Madrid as a stronghold and as a trap
The Community of Madrid is, today, the PP's main electoral asset. It governs there comfortably, and there its president has built a narrative of her own that has earned her both praise and abuse. During the pandemic, her handling of healthcare was harshly criticised by the opposition, but also defended by voices that valued her resistance to the strictest lockdowns. That episode, which some see as a burden and others as a medal, still comes up in any conversation about her hypothetical national projection.
The problem is that moving Ayuso out of Madrid would open a succession battle in the region. Who would replace her? Would that person be able to keep the current majority? The cautious answer is that there are no guarantees. And losing Madrid would be, for the PP, a blow hard to swallow. Hence the option most often chosen by those analysing the board is to touch nothing: a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.
Feijóo, the candidate who fails to inspire
Faced with that dilemma, Feijóo generates an unusually broad consensus among critics of every stripe: he does not excite. He is credited with management experience and an absence of corruption cases, but blamed for a lack of charisma and a tendency not to take risks. The most repeated line is that the PP does not seem in a hurry to govern, that it lives comfortably in opposition, and that the current leader does not convey the urgency many voters expect.
That perception has practical consequences. Some argue that the PP, with Feijóo, is not really competing to win, but to maintain a position of strength that lets it keep influencing events without bearing the costs of governing. If that thesis were true, the calculation would be cold: let the PSOE wear itself out, keep Madrid as a bastion, and wait for better times. The risk, of course, is that attrition also catches up with those who do nothing.
The Vox factor and parliamentary arithmetic
The relationship with Vox is another of the threads running through this debate. With Feijóo, the PP would need Vox to govern, forcing it to manage an uncomfortable dependency. With Ayuso, that dependency would all but disappear, but in exchange a flank would open on the right that could undermine a centrist message. It is no minor dilemma: in politics, depending on a partner who can condition your agenda is one thing; depending on no one and still needing occasional deals is another.
Some analyses suggest that the PP's real goal is not so much winning as placing as many public officials as possible, and that this goal is met just as well in opposition as in government. If that were the case, immobility would have an economic logic: less wear and tear, same salaries, less responsibility. The question is whether that strategy is sustainable when voters begin to feel that their vote changes nothing.
What would happen if Ayuso jumped to national politics?
If the Madrid premier jumped into a general election, the most repeated scenario is a broad PP victory absorbing much of the Vox vote. That would give her a strong position in any subsequent negotiation, but it would also expose her to media wear and tear that she has so far managed from a regional trench. Her record of clashes with the central government and with critical media would be, at once, her main asset and her biggest risk.
The other unknown is the calendar. Any such move would take time, and time, in politics, is a scarce commodity. If the PP decides to keep Feijóo, the chance to play the Ayuso card might not come around again for years. If it decides to replace him, it will have to explain why the candidate it considers valid today stops being so. In either case, the decision is not technical but political.
In the end, the question hovering over this whole debate is not whether Ayuso would win, but why a party that boasts of holding Spain's best electoral asset prefers not to use it. The most common answer is that life in Madrid is very comfortable, and that from there one can afford to wait. The unsettling fact is that, with those numbers, the wait could cost the PP more than it is willing to admit.
Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (62 replies).
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