Spain's left collapses: PSOE, Sumar and Podemos fall below 35%

The left runs out of arguments: PSOE, Sumar and Podemos fall below 35%

Spain's left is no longer a viable governing alternative. A poll published by El Español puts PSOE, Sumar and Podemos below 35% of the combined vote, while PP and Vox approach a three-fifths majority in Congress, the threshold needed to launch a constitutional reform.

PSOE's inexplicable floor

The most puzzling figure is PSOE's resilience: it would still hold above 100 seats despite the pandemic, the Valencia floods (DANA), the failed budgets and the government's wear and tear. Some readings suggest socialist voters no longer vote to govern, but to prevent a change of power: a vote against, rather than in favour. Other analyses point directly to suspicions of electoral manipulation through the vote-counting systems of Indra and Correos, with an alleged missing 16% that fuels distrust.

PP and Vox: a majority to change the Constitution or to carry on as before?

The other question is what PP and Vox would do with a qualified majority. One camp argues that such a majority is the only way to reform the electoral law, end the overrepresentation of independence-minded parties and set a minimum 5% threshold to enter Congress. The sceptical camp replies that PP will not touch issues such as the gender violence law or the institutional structure: the Constitution already declares equality before the law, and yet discriminatory laws remain in force.

If the poll is right, the question is not how far the left will fall, but whether PP and Vox can turn their majority into reforms. Recent history counsels caution.