Spain's IBEX Hits 15,000 Driven by Banks

IBEX climbs from 9,000 to 15,000 on banking strength

The Spanish IBEX 35 index surged from antiestéticars of a crash below 8,800 points to settling at 15,000, with targets of 17,000 now in sight. This rally invalidated numerous failed forecasts. One participant’s explanation is uncomfortable: the index rises because banks dominate its weighting, not because the real economy is performing well.

Two specific positions marked the starting point: Cellnex Telecom, viewed as a potential antenna monopoly similar to Red Eléctrica, and Mapfre, bought primarily for its dividend. Over time, the index changed levels without anyone accurately predicting when.

From 9,000 to 15,000: Levels defining the cycle

The trail of figures is telling. Predictions ranged from drops to 9,100 or 9,000, panic near 8,800, and rebounds to 10,100. Then came five-year highs, with the index touching 10,000 points, a level unseen before the pandemic era. From there, it reached 15,000, with some boldly citing 17,000.

This rise has a downside. Some argue it will eventually burst, returning to 6,500-7,000 points, proving no one knows the ceiling. Another warning: when the IBEX falls, it behaves like a cryptocurrency.

Cellnex and the antenna monopoly thesis

The original thesis was simple: who competes with Cellnex in Spain’s antenna business? No one. Hence the comparison to Red Eléctrica, a de facto monopoly suitable for parking cash and collecting dividends, though not for massive gains. Doubts lingered over whether the share price, exceeding €40, was inflated.

Debt is also a concern. Cellnex’s debt hovered around €8.6 billion, rising with tower acquisitions in the UK and Germany. The core argument: financing costs are higher than before. This detail matters, although high debt is common among Spanish blue chips.

Red Eléctrica, Mapfre, and the dividend refuge

Against the volatility of towers, traditional defensive strategies emerged: Red Eléctrica as a pure safe haven—neither huge gains nor losses, but better returns than bank deposits—Mapfre for dividends, and ACS offering shares instead of cash. The dividend portfolio logic dictates increasing positions if the index falls, never selling.

BBVA provided a counterpoint. Those who bought during the pandemic crash have seen sevenfold gains. With risk premiums collapsed and banks rallying freely, the scenario evokes uncomfortable memories of 2009.

Why is the IBEX up while industry stagnates?

Participants explain that the index reflects the weight of top holdings, not the broader economy. Banks drive growth while industry stalls, creating an imbalance where record IBEX highs coexist with a stagnant productive sector. One blunt diagnosis: splendid for banks, disastrous for everyone else.

Conversely, some anticipate a crash, considering selling everything to park funds at 2%. Others believe the rally could last two more years. US YouTubers recommending indexing into the Spanish market serve as a perfect thermometer for this sentiment.

Inditex, IAG, and the art of timing

There are two approaches. First, waiting for Inditex at €18; leadership changes and the Ukraine war accelerated corrections, with no guarantee against further drops. Second, trading range-bound stocks like IAG, oscillating between €1.50 and €1.70 despite significant debt. The rule is clear: enter, wait for profit, exit. An open summer could push it to €2.

Both methods require what the index doesn’t offer: timing.

With banks driving and industry struggling, the question isn't if the IBEX can reach 17,000. It is what happens when banks stop rising, and if anyone remembers then that this index crashes like a crypto asset.