Spain's IBEX crash: Investor targets IAG at €3.50, Occidental at €5

Hunting the crash in Spain: IAG at €3.50 and crude oil at €5

Spain's IBEX index drops more than 10% in a single session, falling below 6,000 points in what one investor describes as the worst decline in history. Instead of fleeing, some are refining their shopping list. The roadmap published by a private investor with nine years of experience and 60% liquidity intact reads like a big-game hunting catalog: oil companies, airlines, cruise lines, and tourism firms. The thesis is simple and brutal: the bicho will paralyze the United States, and according to this view, Saudi Arabia will finish off Iran by opening the oil taps. The plan admits no half-measures: either I become a millionaire or I go broke.

A phased buying plan: April is the key date

The timeline suggests two chained events in April. First, the bicho explodes in the US, causing partial paralysis and a collapse in domestic trade. Second, the Saudi blow to Iran via oil prices: Aramco would announce increased production, and with the global economy stalled and supply overflowing, oil prices must crash without fail, in his opinion.

The reasoning on Tehran relies on US and EU sanctions, which leave the country unable to import or export, forcing dependence on Russia and China. If Moscow also needs to sell its oil to sustain that trade, isolation tightens. The conclusion drawn is that the Iranian economy almost certainly collapses.

Occidental Petroleum at €5, Delta Airlines at €15

From this scenario come the first two declared targets. Occidental Petroleum, with an entry reference around €5 per share, and Delta Airlines, expected near €15. In both cases, the idea is to enter "very heavily" once panic has done its work.

The skeptic warns that the game has just begun and looks ugly: those who buy too early may be stuck for a long time, and so far no one is diving in fully. The response is that there are ten years ahead and the goal isn't a 5% return, but multiplying capital five to ten times. 500% or ruin, no middle ground.

IAG at €3.50 and the Iberia-British Airways tug-of-war

The next step is aviation. IAG is the chosen vehicle because it was born from British Airways' attempt to absorb Iberia, with politics involved, and because the British side cannot operate certain routes reserved for the Spanish carrier. When the outbreak hits the UK and the British side suffers, the reference price is below €3.50, possibly down to €3. A prepared package at €2.60 is mentioned in the thread.

The doubt hovering over the operation is whether the British might decide to cut losses and dispose of Iberia, an airline with high wages, old planes, and underused routes. Defenders argue that political restrictions bar British Airways from certain routes open to Iberia, making it highly valuable to keep, and if restructuring occurs, they count on five or six years to see profitability.

Cruises, tourism, and permanent radar on Las Vegas Sands

The third phase targets Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and Meliá, all with tourism forecasts on the floor. Here, a mistake of rushing is acknowledged: entering Carnival was premature; the right move is to wait until late April to buy them "completely bleeding." The solvency argument rests on these companies building up cash for months and, in this investor's view, governments won't allow them to close: there will be liquidity, tax deferrals, and whatever else is needed.

Outside that list remains permanent watchfulness on Las Vegas Sands. No fixed price, but if it crashes like in 2008 to $2, the declared intention is to sell everything necessary and borrow wherever possible to buy it.

CNMV closes the door on short positions

While these entries are designed, the playing field shifts. The CNMV (Spain's securities regulator) banned short selling for a month due to cobi19, recalling the extension applied to the entire IBEX between 2011 and 2012. The IBEX already trades below 6,000 points with drops exceeding 10% in one session, and weekend derivatives anticipate a DAX drop of -3.6% and S&P 500 of -4%.

The possibility of suspending the stock market for weeks, defended in some circles, is dismissed without drama: nothing is impossible in this world, but it's unlikely. The chosen strategy opposes shorts, because losses can be unlimited while maximum gains are capped: better to earn slightly less going up, where returns are truly unlimited.

Banks: not a cent, and the Buffett example

The blacklist has only one name. Not a cent in banks in nine years as an investor, having previously analyzed a Spanish entity still burdened with toxic 2008 assets shuffled among US funds and packages presented as securitized bonds.

On the opposite end, the reference is Berkshire Hathaway and its cannon of [$128 billion] ready to buy half the S&P 500 if desired. The logic extracted: those panicking assume this is the end of the world, and if it were, does being invested matter?

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The exact point where analysis stalls is price. References —IAG at €3.50, Occidental at €5, Delta at €15— are unconfirmed entry thresholds that the setter admits could be lower. Orders remain prepared. Oil, for now, hasn't finished falling.