Spain's housing sales plummet in March, notaries report
March data from Spain's notaries confirm a nationwide drop in home sales. Transaction volume is collapsing while prices hold out for now.
English · Original discussion in Spanish · Published
Spain's housing sales plummet in March, notaries report
March data from the Consejo General del Notariado (Spain's notaries' governing body) confirm what many antiestéticared: home sales are falling across Spain. Transaction volume has already given way, and only prices have yet to trinc. Meanwhile, the supply of homes for sale is shrinking, and what remains is unaffordable.
The market stalls between scarce supply and rising prices
The chart accompanying the news, labelled 'TALUEC', shows a clear trend: sales are falling in every autonomous community. Some analysts argue that demand has dropped sharply because potential buyers, especially young people and middle-income families, can no longer afford current prices. Others point out that the shortage of homes for sale, combined with more expensive financing, has created a bottleneck that will only clear when sellers adjust their expectations.
One line of thinking adds that recent immigration, which had sustained demand in recent years, is beginning to show signs of exhaustion. Newcomers are concentrated in substandard housing and low-quality rentals, not in purchases. This would explain why the second-hand market is suffering the most.
What will happen to prices?
The million-dollar question is whether falling sales will drag prices down with them. For now, sellers refuse to cut, but the accumulated stock and the lack of buyers able to pay suggest a correction is only a matter of time. In markets like Madrid, demand from high-income buyers is still propping up prices, but elsewhere in the country the outlook is bleaker.
What no analysis quite explains is why, given these indicators, the official narrative is still one of 'market strength'. The reality reported by the notaries, however, speaks for itself.
Related discussions in the forum
March data from the Consejo General del Notariado (Spain's notaries' governing body) confirm what many antiestéticared: home sales are falling across Spain. Transaction volume has already given way, and only prices have yet to trinc. Meanwhile, the supply of homes for sale is shrinking, and what remains is unaffordable.
The market stalls between scarce supply and rising prices
The chart accompanying the news, labelled 'TALUEC', shows a clear trend: sales are falling in every autonomous community. Some analysts argue that demand has dropped sharply because potential buyers, especially young people and middle-income families, can no longer afford current prices. Others point out that the shortage of homes for sale, combined with more expensive financing, has created a bottleneck that will only clear when sellers adjust their expectations.
One line of thinking adds that recent immigration, which had sustained demand in recent years, is beginning to show signs of exhaustion. Newcomers are concentrated in substandard housing and low-quality rentals, not in purchases. This would explain why the second-hand market is suffering the most.
What will happen to prices?
The million-dollar question is whether falling sales will drag prices down with them. For now, sellers refuse to cut, but the accumulated stock and the lack of buyers able to pay suggest a correction is only a matter of time. In markets like Madrid, demand from high-income buyers is still propping up prices, but elsewhere in the country the outlook is bleaker.
What no analysis quite explains is why, given these indicators, the official narrative is still one of 'market strength'. The reality reported by the notaries, however, speaks for itself.
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Summary of a discussion on Burbuja.info - Foro de economía, actualidad y política., translated from Spanish and reviewed before publication. Read the full discussion (11 replies).
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