Spain's grandchildren law and the electoral roll: the dispute shaping 2027

Grandchildren law: the electoral roll that could decide 2027

The dispute over Spain's grandchildren law is no longer a matter of historical memory; it has become a battle over the electoral roll. In recent months, outlets such as ABC, El Mundo, El Español and Okdiario have published reports linking the mass granting of citizenship to descendants of Spaniards with a possible electoral interest on the part of the PSOE (Spain's Socialist Party). The opposition, however, has gone no further than legal appeals and public complaints. The PP (the main conservative party) is reluctant to denounce fraud in overseas voting so as not to cast doubt on the electoral system, while Vox has taken its case to the Constitutional Court. The result is a sense of impunity that fuels the thesis that Sánchez has a plan for 2027.

The origin: a 2022 law nobody questioned

The grandchildren law implements the eighth additional provision of Law 20/2022 on Democratic Memory. Passed under the coalition government, the law extends the right to citizenship to descendants of exiles. That is the official story. The criticism begins when it becomes clear that this mass granting of passports can translate into votes. According to the figures cited by the media mentioned, passport grants have multiplied 4.5-fold in eight years, and in Cuba alone an estimated 385,000 people are eligible to vote. The most pessimistic estimate puts the new electoral roll at three million voters.

The argument of those who defend the law is that the right to citizenship is not tied to the right to vote. Josep Borrell, former EU foreign policy chief, summed it up: «Voting rights and citizenship do not go together». But the reality is that the law allows the new citizens to vote, and that is where the conflict arises.

The opposition that doesn't oppose

The PP finds itself in an awkward position. On the one hand, it denounces possible fraud; on the other, it antiestéticars undermining the electoral system. As Vozpópuli reported, the conservatives are reluctant to denounce fraud in overseas voting so as not to damage the image of the institutions. That caution comes at a cost: the feeling that nothing can stop the process. Vox has chosen the judicial route, with an appeal to the Constitutional Court that, according to critics, has little chance of succeeding because the court is chaired by Conde-Pumpido, who is seen as leaning toward the government.

Meanwhile, the PSOE has defended the inclusion of descendants of exiles on the electoral roll. In a recent tweet, the party stated: «We cannot allow the descendants of those who had to leave to be stripped of their rights. Justice must guarantee their inclusion on the electoral roll before 2027». The statement is not innocent: it places the battle in the judicial and electoral arena.

Postal voting and the chain of custody

The weakest point of the whole process is postal voting in countries like Cuba. The Cuban postal system is under the regime's control, and the votes of the «Spaniards» living on the island pass through the hands of officials earning less than 15 dollars a month. The chain of custody is, at the very least, questionable. Critics argue that this is the real loophole through which fraud can slip. The PP, once again, prefers not to talk about it.

The certainty that there is a plan

The idea has taken hold in political circles that Sánchez will not call elections until the electoral roll is locked down. The phrase that sums up this thesis is that «the certainty that Sánchez is going to steal the 2027 elections is already in all the non-Sanchista media». It is not a proven claim, but it is a widespread perception. The calculation is simple: if the electoral roll grows with sympathetic voters, victory is closer. And if postal voting is also controlled, the outcome is guaranteed.

For now, the opposition limits itself to complaining and waiting. Vox's appeal to the Constitutional Court and the complaints to the Junta Electoral Central (the central electoral commission) are steps, but not enough. The question hanging in the air is what the PP will do once the electoral roll is definitively inflated. Will it merely lament, or put up a fight? As of this discussion, the answer has not been written.

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The grandchildren law has ceased to be a matter of memory and has become an electoral instrument. The data is on the table. So is the opposition. But the sense that the process is unstoppable keeps growing. If there is no reaction, 2027 could be the year when certainty becomes reality.