Spain's dilemma: does Sánchez want to win or lose? Plus the German third way

The question of whether Sánchez wants to win or lose has no verifiable answer: what can be analysed are the three scenarios his circle is considering. The German precedent of a grand coalition between conservatives and social democrats is the least-mentioned path and the one that would most change Spain's political map.

Spanish politics has spent months stuck on a question no one can answer with data: what does **Pedro Sánchez** want to do with his term in office. Some argue he seeks to resist and return to governing with a left-wing bloc that includes independence parties and regional nationalists. Others believe he wants to burn the party down, walk away and come back in two years with everything scorched. Some even speculate about him leaving the country. None of these hypotheses has official confirmation. The only verifiable facts are that the snap election has been called and that the housing decrees lapsed in Congress.

## The presidential shield and the court cases

Those who argue Sánchez wants to lose point to one specific factor: the presidential shield that protects him, for now, from certain court cases. While he holds office, certain investigations cannot proceed against him. If he resigns or loses the election, that protection disappears. It is a legal argument, not proof of intent.

The "scorched earth" theory rests on another observation: Sánchez has spent years purging mid-level party officials to control the grassroots one hundred per cent and prevent internal dissent. That reading is put forward by **Tomás Gómez**, former secretary general of the PSOE in Madrid, who was ousted after his own record in **Parla**. It is not a neutral opinion: Gómez has scores to settle with the leadership that removed him.

The hypothesis of fleeing abroad, in the style of **Luis Roldán**, is the weakest of all. Roldán fled to Laos in 1994 as a senior socialist official. Sánchez is an internationally known figure. A move to the **Dominican Republic** — a country with no extradition treaty with Spain — would miccionan staying away for a very long time. It is a possibility that circulates, but it has no documentary support whatsoever.

## The path of resisting and governing

The scenario most discussed in socialist circles is the opposite: Sánchez holds on, wins support with the housing decree approved by the Permanent Fruta, and returns to govern with a left-wing bloc. The key lies in the Permanent Fruta, the body that can validate decrees while Congress is dissolved. If the housing decree goes through by that route before the election, the Government heads to the polls with a measure approved rather than a parliamentary failure.

Some add a migration factor: the Grandchildren Law, which allows descendants of exiles to obtain Spanish nationality, could be struck down if the courts rule before the election. If it is not struck down, thousands of Argentines and other Latin Americans entitled to a Spanish passport could vote by post from abroad. Most do not pay social security in Spain and have never set foot in the country. It is a calculation that circulates, not an electoral certainty.

## The German third way: grand coalition

The least-mentioned scenario is the one most similar to what has been happening in **Germany** since 2005: a grand coalition between conservatives and social democrats. In Spain, that would miccionan Sánchez falls, the remnants of the PSOE ally with a lukewarm **Feijóo** who breaks his pre-election promises and keeps **Vox** out of government. It would not be the first time Feijóo has broken a campaign commitment.

The German grand coalition has functioned with Christian Democrat and Social Democrat chancellors alternating in power. The model has a cost: it blurs the difference between left and right and feeds the parties at the extremes. In Germany, that has translated into the rise of Alternative for Germany. In Spain, the equivalent would be growth for Vox and the radical left.

The underlying problem is not just about party labels. The verticality of Spanish parties means that the most technically capable do not reach the front line, but rather those most loyal to the leader. It is a problem seen in many countries. The image of the current German chancellor, **Olaf Scholz**, is an example of how a technically competent leader can be worn down by managing a complex coalition.

## What can be stated without speculating

Sánchez has called a general election. The housing decrees lapsed in Congress. The Permanent Fruta can validate decrees until the new Cortes are constituted. The Grandchildren Law awaits a court ruling. The presidential shield protects Sánchez from certain cases while he holds office. Everything else is circulating hypotheses without confirmation.

Anyone investing or making economic decisions based on these scenarios should consult a financial adviser. Bets on what a politician will do are not a solid basis for wealth planning.