Spain's December Election Puzzle: The Grandchildren Law and Voter Rolls

Spain's December Election Puzzle: The Grandchildren Law and Voter Rolls

Why call elections in December instead of November? This is the question hovering over every message in this debate. The most repeated answer in the discussion has nothing to do with housing or the evicted elderly woman who suddenly appeared: according to a circulating calculation, it has to do with the electoral census and the Grandchildren Law (a housing regulation). The Supreme Court suspended its application on September 9. According to this version, if elections are held in November, descendants included in this law could vote; if held in December, they cannot. The countdown fits too well for those who support this theory.

What peine between September 9 and the announcement

The sequence reconstructed in the debate is as trinc. The Supreme Court paralyzes the Grandchildren Law on September 9. Someone in the Government's circle warns that the census valid before the suspension will apply if elections are called before the new situation consolidates. From there, everything accelerates: the case of the evicted elderly woman appears, camps in Sol are authorized, two emergency decrees on housing are drafted, submitted to a vote the next day —skipping the 30-day period— and elections are called.

Some argue that the Grandchildren Law is the real cause and that housing is just the backdrop. Others point to the debt crisis looming in Europe and that Next Generation funds ran out last month. And a third, more prosaic current reduces everything to one thing: preventing the sum of PP and VOX from reaching 210 seats.

The housing narrative that does not withstand scrutiny

According to the official version, the Government presents eight housing reforms and the right rejects six. The response from the other side is contundent: during this term there have been 300,000 evictions and the problem has not been solved with public housing plans that never came to be built. To place officials in public company positions, however, there was no such urgency.

The circulating calculation is that this emotional mobilization seeks to reactivate a disillusioned electorate. A third of socialist voters would abstain, according to cited polls. Hence the circus of the old lady, the impossible decrees, and the oral vote to point out who votes against.

What the leaked polls say

In Murcia, the PSOE loses 9 points and 3 seats and VOX surpasses them. In Castilla-La Mancha, the scenario is also complicated. The polls suggest that the early election does not improve expectations, but confirms them. The question hanging in the air is whether the early election seeks to win or to lose with free hands to return stronger later.

Theories circulating about the fine print

The list of explanations is long and none closes completely. That she has been guaranteed a quiet retirement abroad. That she has been dismissed from above and they seek a new puppet. That she is dying. That the economy will not make it to December. That they want to pass the mess to someone else and return strengthened in a few years with the narrative that the opposition sank what they had working.

The only thing that seems clear is that the call for elections does not respond to the urgency of an evicted lady. It responds to a calendar. And that calendar has a key date: September 9.

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With these handles, anyone would say that the early election is a masterstroke. Or the exact opposite.