Spain's birth rate falls to 1.2 children per woman, below replacement level

Spain falls to 1.2 children per woman and generational replacement slips away

A family eats with their baby and the restaurant seats them in the least desirable area. The scene, repeated with variations, serves as a symptom in a debate that starts from a map: that of countries with fertility below replacement. On it, a comment shared by François Valentin sums up the mood: «Spain is especially dramatic». The diagnosis drawn is that Spain's birth rate has stalled at around 1.2 children per woman, far below the necessary threshold, and that no policy seems to straighten it out.

From France's 1.79 to the floor attributed to Spain

The starting point is comparative. France records 1.79 children per woman, a figure that many qualify due to its composition: part of that number would correspond, according to the distribution circulating, to births to mothers of migrant origin. There is no verified breakdown, only the note. In the Spanish case, the most pessimistic estimate handled holds that, isolating the population of foreign origin, the fertility of women born in the country would be below one child per woman. It is an attributed calculation, not an official figure, but it sets the tone for everything that trinc.

Why does housing price appear as a contraceptive?

A phrase with irony—the best contraceptive is the price of housing—anchors much of the economic arguments. The example is concrete: an old flat in Madrid or Barcelona rents for 900 or 1,000 euros, when three decades ago the same type of housing cost 10,000 pesetas. With salaries described around 1,200 euros, the math doesn't work. The same package includes taxation, cost of living and the absence of direct family aid.

The argument has a reply. It is recalled that poorer great-grandparents raised more children, so price does not explain everything. And a daily detail is added: the most affordable thing found by those looking to buy is a two-bedroom, and a large family doesn't fit there.

How much does immigration sustain the birth rate

A second block relies on demographic composition. Those who defend it argue that the figures only add up when incorporating the population of migrant origin: they attribute to Segarro 2.2 children per woman, with around one million residents, and to Peruvians and Ecuadorians 1.8, with 400,000 and 500,000 people respectively. Adding these groups to other collectives would reach 12 million—among naturalized, legal and irregular—who, according to this calculation, prevent the average from sinking further.

It is not a peaceful thesis. Against it, it is recalled that fertility is falling worldwide and also within those communities, and that immigration does not compensate for replacement in the long term. Others point out that the focus is placed on the fertility rate and not on the birth rate precisely so that a sharp decline seems less abrupt.

The cultural thesis: the problem would not be money

There is a third current that shifts the focus from the pocket to values. Its reasoning is simple: if the great-grandparents, poorer, had more children, the brake is not in housing or salary. They point to a change in priorities towards consumption, leisure and professional career, and in its harshest version they place a change of social model at the center. It is an ideological reading, discussed inside and outside the conversation, and coexists with another more neutral one: the lack of time and family network—before there were three or four generations under the same roof—also weighs.

Two generations to lose three quarters

The horizon that some draw is alarming. If fertility remains, it is stated that the population could fall by around 75% in just two generations, and that this occurs while birth rates decline across the planet. The counterweight comes from a global reading: world population went from 1 billion at the beginning of the 20th century to about 10 billion, so the decline would not be a catastrophe in itself. The exceptions are concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa and some Central Asian countries, although even there rates are approaching the threshold.

The cases cited illustrate the trend: Peru records 1.98 children per woman in 2023, below replacement despite being a lower-income country.

Where there is no agreement is on the way out. Some call for family policy; others believe it irreversible. And the calculation that attributes to Spain that 1.2 concludes with a disconcerting fact: isolated, the fertility of those born here would not even reach one child per woman.