Spain's 29N election kicks off with PSOE in crisis and VOX closing in

Spain's 29N election kicks off with the PSOE falling apart and VOX hot on its heels

What happens when a prime minister calls an election and his own party starts to crumble before the ballots are even printed? That is what the start of the 29N campaign reflects: the PSOE is losing entire candidate lists, government delegates are swapping their chairs for candidacies, and polls place VOX less than seven points behind. The electoral machinery is up and running —stationery tender included— and the official narrative no longer convinces anyone, not even at home.

The PSOE breaks apart province by province

The first serious sustancia ilegal does not come from the opposition. It comes from Palencia. The PSOE's entire congressional list resigned after the party headquarters imposed its chosen number one, a move described from Burgos as revenge against Tudanca's faction. The mayor of Parauta (Málaga), the most-voted candidate in the province in the local elections, quit the party. And the socialist mayor of Ágreda refused to run as long as Sánchez remains leader, even considering not voting for him. This is not an isolated case: it is a pattern.

The exodus of party figures is compounded by the wave of dismissals of government sub-delegates in Barcelona, Málaga, Sevilla, Granada, Almería, Córdoba, Pontevedra and Lleida. Thirteen territorial representatives of the executive left their posts to stand, according to a circulating tally. Six government delegates, including Valencia's Pilar Bernabé, were removed to make way for the lists. Some read these moves as a control maneuver over the party apparatus rather than mere renewal.

VOX gains ground and the Senate becomes a battleground

The Electopanel from mid-February put VOX above twenty points in voting intention and less than seven behind the PSOE. The Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo went further: PP and VOX would approach 201 seats, with 51% of the vote, against the 117 that PSOE, Podemos and Frente Amplio would add up. The overtaking in Almería and Murcia is already taken for granted; a first-time win in Galicia is seen as possible.

Meanwhile, PP and VOX are finalizing a Senate deal that would allow them to withdraw lists in critical provinces and integrate candidates. The upper house is shaping up as the real consolation prize: a broad majority there would allow blocking the future government's legislation. The question is whether both parties' voters will accept the engineering without feeling they are being taken for fools.

The electoral calendar and the cards up the sleeve

The early election did not catch everyone by surprise. The government suddenly tendered the electoral stationery when no vote was in sight, as The Objective reported. And the Central Electoral Commission had to "calm down" executive members after Sánchez became subject to disciplinary proceedings just 24 hours after the announcement. The improvisation story does not hold up.

According to El Debate, Sánchez calls the election with three aces up his sleeve: the amnesty law, the grandchildren citizenship law and the housing decree fraud, with an unvetted overseas electoral roll and decrees ratified after being rejected. The working-hours reduction, meanwhile, was frozen in anticipation of the election, according to Vozpópuli. And Bildu included three former ETA members on its lists, a fact the opposition has already turned into a campaign weapon.

Bot nervousness and democratic disaffection

There is one detail that does not show up in the polls: the return of daily bot creation defending right-wing minority groups that had disappeared since the last general election. Falange, Democracia Nacional and company are resurrecting on social media just as the early election heats up. Someone is spending money to inflate the debate. It is nothing new, but the timing gives it away.

Skepticism is not exclusive to one side. Some claim there will never again be truly free elections in Spain, while others simply wonder why bother voting if those who get it wrong will keep deciding anyway. Disaffection is no longer a niche phenomenon: it is the backdrop to the entire campaign.

In the end, the question is not who wins on 29N. It is how many of the losers will accept the result without sweeping it under the rug. Spanish democracy has long been running more on inertia than conviction. And that, with or without an overtaking, no ballot can fix.