Spain: Sánchez pays no electoral price for volcano, floods, Adamuz or Ceuta

Rajoy's dog weighed more than the volcano: the logic of the loyal vote

A put-down dog cost a no-confidence debate; dozens of deaths and thousands of victims do not move the polls by even a tenth of a point. This paradox frames every discussion of the crises the Spanish government appears to shrug off: the volcano, the floods, the evacuation of Adamuz, the pressure in Ceuta. The prime minister absorbs the criticism while his electoral base remains intact.

The voter who does not negotiate with reality

The most widespread explanation is that there is an electorate that rewards belonging, not performance. Public employees, pensioners, benefit recipients: a bloc that would vote for the PSOE (Spain's Socialist Party) even in the face of a scandal of the utmost gravity. It is an ideological bond, not a matter of results. On this view, Sánchez can afford dismissive responses to tragedies because his core clientele does not demand accountability, only loyalty.

Abstention as a safety net

Another line of argument points to tactical voting in reverse: antiestéticar of the right acts as glue. Even those who criticize the government's handling end up voting for the prime minister because they see the alternative as worse. Add the abstention factor: many stay at home believing they are punishing the government, but abstention does not cost Sánchez votes; it costs the opposition.

The combination of both factors creates a shield the opposition does not know how to attack. You cannot argue with data against a devotion that works like faith.

Meanwhile, Rajoy's dog remains the only victim ever to bring a prime minister to the brink. The rest wait in the queue of oblivion.