Spain Receives 24 Migrants Per Thousand Inhabitants, France Only 5

Why Spain Receives 24 Migrants Per Thousand Inhabitants, and France Only 5

Why Spain and not Germany? This is the question that hovers over every migration data release, and it has a numerical answer before an ideological one. In 2023, Spain received 24 migrants per 1,000 inhabitants, while France registered 5 and Italy 6, according to the latest data from Eurostat and the Bank of Spain. This is the second major cycle of arrivals in three decades. And, unlike the first, it is not driven by a housing bubble.

The Second Migratory Boom, in Figures

A report by Oxford Economics, authored by economist Ángel Talavera, presents an uncomfortable fact for the growth narrative: up to three-quarters of the jobs created in the current cycle have been filled by foreigners or people with dual nationality. Employment is growing, yes. But it's growing like this. Researcher Jesús Fernández-Huertas Sarracena frames it in The Second Spanish Immigration Boom, published in October: between 2015 and 2024, Spain became the fourth most desired global destination, a phenomenon comparable in magnitude to that of 1995-2010, although with differences that may be decisive. Official forecasts do not indicate a slowdown. AIReF calculates net immigration of around 600,000 people for the analyzed period and an average flow of 290,000 annually thereafter.

Why Do They Come to Spain and Not Germany?

Here lies the explanation that is often missing. The study indicates that in Spain, factors of the receiving country weigh more than those of the sending country. In other words: it's not just poverty or instability at origin, but the country's own attractiveness. Climate, security, stability, a shared language with a large part of Latin America, and wages that, while mediocre in European terms, surpass those in much of the region from which the bulk of this second wave originates. Added to this is a regulatory framework described as liberal: in May, the Government reduced the required residency time and simplified regularization. Capital Economics estimates that regularizations will increase from around 200,000 in 2024 to 300,000 annually, 0.6% of the population, over the next three years. Word of mouth, now on social media, does the rest.

Why Not Go to the United States or Canada?

Because often they want to but cannot. Part of the analysis suggests that many who emigrate from Latin America would prefer the United States, Australia, or Canada, but these destinations have tightened their requirements. Spain then becomes an option by default, with an added advantage: a Spanish passport later opens doors that their original passport closed, including entry to markets where visas were previously required. Some describe the country as a stepping stone to third destinations. Conversely, it is argued that Germany's high salary does not compensate when there is no qualification: costs, labor legislation, and climate eat up the difference.

Aid, Healthcare, and Nationality: The Administrative Magnet

The second set of explanations points to the welfare state and bureaucracy. It is argued that social benefits, universal healthcare and education, family reunification, and a fast track to nationality act as an incentive that is hard to match. The counter-argument comes from another angle: these services also exist in other European countries, so the real differential lies in the language and the ease of procedures. And there is a third argument, perhaps the most cited: Spanish nationality is equivalent to a key to access the Schengen area. Once inside, mobility throughout the rest of the European Union is open.

The Fine Print: Working Poor and Strained Housing

The flip side of the phenomenon appears when comparing with Germany. There, it is argued, there are retirees in tight financial situations; here, low-wage workers are abundant. This asymmetry—relatively better pensions, relatively worse employment—is what is deemed unsustainable. In parallel, on the coast, there is pressure on the real estate market that is pushing local working-class residents out of rentals and homeownership. A detailed breakdown, cross-referencing disposable income, cost of living, and hourly wages between countries, reveals differences that surprise those who only look at the gross figures. And there is no consensus on how much of this is cyclical.

What Could Disrupt the Scenario

Three open fronts. First, money: a significant part of the recent economic boost depends on European funds with an expiration date. Second, partners: several continental governments have tightened their immigration policies, and Spain's is currently the exception. Third, Schengen: if a common border is considered too porous, the room for maneuver narrows. Neither the timeline nor the outcome is written.

Meanwhile, the country remains a place with good weather, where the language is understood, and paperwork, against all odds, gets done. Difficult to compete with that.