SpaceX Stock: Space Dream or Financial Bubble?

SpaceX Stock Exchange Listing: Big Win or Punishment Announced?

SpaceX’s stock market debut has been anything but discreet. With an offering price of $135 per share—more than double Morningstar’s $63 valuation—the public offering triggered FOMO among retail investors who saw Elon Musk’s space company as the next big windfall. But 46 days later, with the stock trading around $115, skepticism has gained ground. Was this a unique opportunity or a classic case of overvaluation fueled by hype?

The Valuation Gap: $135 vs. $63

The first warning came from Morningstar. Its independent valuation of $63 per share contrasted sharply with the $135 set in the IPO. A discrepancy that did not go unnoticed by more cautious analysts, who recalled that in IPOs of unprofitable companies—and SpaceX is one—the pattern usually repeats: overvalued launch, initial rise fueled by beginner greed, and subsequent collapse when insiders sell and media noise fades. "I foresee a good debut and believe they will hold the price for a few days. After that, they will crash," summarized an experienced investor before the launch.

And so it was. After an initial surge that pushed the stock to $166 in aftermarket, the correction did not take long. In weeks, the share fell to $115, 15% below the offering price and 30% from highs. Some investors, confident in a hypothetical floor at $100, began accumulating positions hoping for a rebound. But the question remained: what truly sustains this stock price?

The Narrative vs. Numbers: Starlink, Mars, and the Musk Factor

SpaceX does not trade on profits—which it lacks—but on the promise of a future where Starlink dominates satellite internet access and Mars colonization becomes a real business. Proponents of buying argue that the true value lies not in reusable rockets, but in the potential monopoly of global connectivity. However, critics point out that, so far, Starlink remains a project in the deployment phase, with bills to pay and growing competition.

Elon Musk, meanwhile, remains the company’s greatest asset and its greatest risk. His announcements—from Mars hotels to rare earth mines on the red planet—have the power to send the stock soaring within hours. But also to crash it if the narrative loses steam. "The stock price depends on his ability to keep that narrative alive, not on verifiable economic results," warns an analyst in the investment scene. With 29% of shares shorted, the market is clearly divided: some bet that the house of cards will collapse; others, that Musk will pull another rabbit out of the hat.

The Shadow of Macro and 'Too Big to Fail'

Adding to SpaceX’s uncertainty is the macro context. The explosion of a Blue Origin rocket—direct competitor—delayed the Artemis program, which could affect SpaceX’s government contracts. Additionally, restrictive monetary policy in the US puts pressure on tech valuations. Some argue that the equity market is shielded: 60% of Americans' savings are in the stock market, and the Fed might be forced to intervene if it falls. But others remember that history is full of promising companies that went bankrupt or were diluted, like Gowex, Abengoa, or Banco Popular.

Short Squeeze Risk: The Volkswagen Phantom

With 29% short interest, the stock is a classic candidate for a short squeeze. If Musk launches a shocking announcement, shorts might be forced to cover positions, sending the price up explosively. Those who remember the Volkswagen case in 2008 know it is not a discardable possibility. But it is also true that the paper release schedule is "brutal," according to one trader, and that insiders have incentives to sell.

The Investor’s Dilemma: Buy Smoke or Wait?

Today, the stock fluctuates between $100 and $120. Some investors have opted for staggered accumulation strategies: buying in tranches as the price falls, aiming to sell in the next euphoria surge. For others, the only sensible move is to wait for the dust to settle, in two or four years, when volume drops and the price finds a genuine floor. Until then, the SpaceX market—like Musk himself—promises to be a spectacle full of twists, but where fundamentals matter much less than faith.